13 W Dade 22 · Arcola, MO 65603

$130,995

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,847 sqft · SingleFamily · 94 Days on market

Built 1880 Fair condition 1.00 ac lot ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the peace and privacy of the Missouri countryside with this beautiful 1 acre property located just a short 15-minute drive to Stockton Lake known for its great fishing, sail boating, skiing, camping, hunting, and more. This property offers the perfect blend of recreation, seclusion, and opportunity. With 5-bedrooms, 2-bath this home offers just under 1,900 square feet of living space and plenty of potential for the right buyer. With a spacious layout and solid footprint, there's room to reimagine and add value. The huge spacious shop offers plenty of space for your boat, jet skis, and a plethora of other equipment and gear. Priced to sell fast this one of a kind property won't last long. Being sold as is.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1880
• Listed 94 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $131k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $131k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#878 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Greenfield R-IV (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #283 of 535 in MO (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($905 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Dade County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,205 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.25%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $24,074
• Equity at exit: $58,901

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $74,153
• Equity at exit: $90,774

Cash invested: $36,679 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65603

• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,310 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$687
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$164 /mo · $1,965/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,146

Max offer price $130,995

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $220	-5% $175	+0% $130	+5% $85	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $26	-5% $78	+0% $130	+5% $182	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $163	base $130	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,749
• Closing costs: $3,930
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,995 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,995 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,995 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,995 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,995 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,995 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,995 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,995 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,995 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,995 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,995 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,995 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,995 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,995 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,995 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    price $130,995 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Escape to the peace and privacy of the Missouri countryside with this beautiful 1 acre property located just a short 15-minute drive to Stockton Lake known for its great fishing, sail boating, skiing, camping, hunting, and more. This property offers the perfect blend of recreation, seclusion, and opportunity. With 5-bedrooms, 2-bath this home offers just under 1,900 square feet of living space and plenty of potential for the right buyer. With a spacious layout and solid footprint, there's room to reimagine and add value. The huge spacious shop offers plenty of space for your boat, jet skis, and a plethora of other equipment and gear. Priced to sell fast this one of a kind property won't last long. Being sold as is.

17. 2026-04-16
    price $156,995 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Escape to the peace and privacy of the Missouri countryside with this beautiful 1 acre property located just a short 15-minute drive to Stockton Lake known for its great fishing, sail boating, skiing, camping, hunting, and more. This property offers the perfect blend of recreation, seclusion, and opportunity. With 5-bedrooms, 2-bath this home offers just under 1,900 square feet of living space and plenty of potential for the right buyer. With a spacious layout and solid footprint, there's room to reimagine and add value. The huge spacious shop offers plenty of space for your boat, jet skis, and a plethora of other equipment and gear. Priced to sell fast this one of a kind property won't last long. Being sold as is.

18. 2026-03-18
    listed $165,000 Active 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Escape to the peace and privacy of the Missouri countryside with this beautiful 1 acre property located just a short 15-minute drive to Stockton Lake known for its great fishing, sail boating, skiing, camping, hunting, and more. This property offers the perfect blend of recreation, seclusion, and opportunity. With 5-bedrooms, 2-bath this home offers just under 1,900 square feet of living space and plenty of potential for the right buyer. With a spacious layout and solid footprint, there's room to reimagine and add value. The huge spacious shop offers plenty of space for your boat, jet skis, and a plethora of other equipment and gear. Priced to sell fast this one of a kind property won't last long. Being sold as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,338
• − Property taxes: −$1,965
• − Insurance: −$655
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − Depreciation: −$3,811
• Taxable loss: −$560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$134
• After-tax cash flow: $1,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family home requires moderate repairs to its exterior and landscaping to improve its curb appeal and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Siding — Weathered and needs repainting
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown areas need trimming

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping attracts renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Siding · Weathered and needs repainting	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Overgrown areas need trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping attracts renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenfield R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2913320
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,532
• Composite: 37.12/100
• National rank: #9032
• State rank: #283 of 535 in MO

Livability — Arcola

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #25307

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arcola, MO
• Population (ZIP): 113

Population outlook (Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,043 people
• By 2030: 6,687 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 5,989 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 5,324 · -24.4%
• By 2075: 4,122 · -41.5%
• By 2100: 3,168 · -55.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 8%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Dade

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.0% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.3pp toward R · 2008: -40.9pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+67.0 2016: R+64.5 2012: R+50.2 2008: R+40.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-20.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $130,995 OGAR
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $156,995 OGAR
• 2026-03-18 Listed $165,000 OGAR