4275 Fernwood St · Rocklin, CA 95677

$174,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 19 Days on market

Built 1976 Good condition $130/sqft · 31% above area Est $134k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Sierra Lakes Mobile Home Community, where comfort, convenience, and affordability come together! This rare 3-bedroom home offers an exceptional opportunity for those seeking extra space without sacrificing value. The beautifully updated kitchen features sleek granite countertops, modern appliances, and abundant cabinetry, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The open-concept floor plan creates a bright and inviting atmosphere, ideal for family gatherings or relaxing evenings at home. Step outside to enjoy the usable yard complete with a playground area for children, a large deck for outdoor entertaining and relaxation, and a spacious storage shed for tools

Key facts

• Large deck
• Usable yard
• Storage shed

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• USABLE YARD
• LARGE DECK
• STORAGE SHED
• PICTURESQUE POND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $893 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 2.7% in Rocklin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#136 in CA, #4,755 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Rocklin Unified (suburban): math 44% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #96 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,178 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.88%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,777
• List price: $174,800
• Delta: 30.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4264 Fernwood St #54	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-3%)	8mo	$100,000	$77	85
4271 Fernwood St	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$149,500	$104	80
4319 Oakwood St	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+2%)	10mo	$151,000	$110	80
4267 Fernwood St	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	6mo	$130,000	$104	76
4261 Fernwood St #33	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$150,000	$104	75
5265 Oakwood Ct	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$119,800	$83	74
5505 S Grove St #51	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+3%)	10mo	$135,000	$98	73
4140 Lakeside Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	1mo	$55,000	$44	72
4280 Cedarwood St #67	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	11mo	$139,900	$97	71
4137 Oakmont St	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$124,000	$86	69
4173 Lakeside Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	11mo	$125,000	$87	65
5505 S Grove St #202	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	11mo	$218,000	$151	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $28,375
• Equity at exit: $26,063

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $97,305
• Equity at exit: $15,114

Cash invested: $48,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95677

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,659 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$218 /mo · $2,622/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $893

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,529

Max offer price $174,800

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,700
• Closing costs: $5,244
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5415 S Grove St Rocklin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	765	$2,100	$2.75	2d	6	0.33mi
4769 Racetrack Cir Rocklin, CA	3.0	2.0	1148	$2,950	$2.57	44d	1	0.38mi
4710 El Cid Ct Rocklin, CA	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,575	$1.67	22d	1	0.71mi
5800 Woodside Dr Rocklin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,239	$2.63	3d	4	0.72mi
1501 Cobble Creek Cir Rocklin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,300	$2.61	2d	7	1.09mi
5051 El Don Dr Rocklin, CA	2.0	2.0	1125	$2,270	$2.02	2d	7	1.10mi
5180 Rocklin Rd Rocklin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$2,552	$2.98	2d	9	1.20mi
5002 Jewel St Rocklin, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$3,180	$2.94	2d	13	1.42mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,800 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,800 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,800 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,800 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,800 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,800 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,800 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,800 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,800 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,800 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,800 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,800 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,800 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on marketlisting id $174,800 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,792
• − Property taxes: −$2,622
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,553
• − Management: −$2,553
• − Depreciation: −$5,085
• Taxable income: $8,430
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,023
• After-tax cash flow: $8,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home in Sierra Lakes Mobile Home Community offers a good condition with updated kitchens and bathrooms, and a usable yard with a playground and deck. It is ready for immediate occupancy and has potential for further value enhancement through landscaping and smart home upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and outdoor play area — enhances curb appeal and provides entertainment for residents
• Both upgrading to LED lighting — improves energy efficiency and ambiance
• Both installing smart home devices — enhances convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and outdoor play area — enhances curb appeal and provides entertainment for residents ↑
• Both upgrading to LED lighting — improves energy efficiency and ambiance ↑
• Both installing smart home devices — enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rocklin Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600013
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $82,858
• Composite: 49.58/100
• National rank: #1984
• State rank: #96 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rocklin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #136
• US rank: #4755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rocklin, CA
• County: Placer County · 390,510 people
• City population: 73,077
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 29,206
• Household income: $105,713
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -443.08%
• Current HPI: 278.1359
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B