5648 Foothill Blvd #31 · Rogue River, OR 97526

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 308 Days on market

Built 1997 Est $135k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Home is priced to SELL In a Beautiful 55+ Park. Home is a double wide 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1512 Square Feet, built by Ombudsman in 1997. Kitchen has a small dining area, lots of counter space and storage, refrigerator. Freezer, Washer and Dryer are also included in sale, separate dining room, den that could also work as an office, vaulted ceilings, master bedroom with bath that has separate shower and a soaking tub, double sink vanity, skylight, slider to the covered deck, storage area (2 levels). This home is being sold AS IS. Owner is in the process of removing personal items. Home will need carpet and some loving TLC.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1997
• Listed 308 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not currently rented; Short-term rentals not permitted
• Financial info: Monthly land lease of $995
• HOA & community: Senior community; No CCRs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors; Audio surveillance on premises; Video surveillance on premises
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Propane available; Easements for utilities; Has generator
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide) located in-park; One level; Built in 1997; May remain in park; On leased land
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof; Double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Double pane windows; Storage structure; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Double oven; Oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms including a primary bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Forced air heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Accessible approach with ramp; Bonus room; Living room; Eating area
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $672 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 2.5% in Rogue River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#111 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, commute F.
• Rogue River SD 35 (other): math 30% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #129 of 183 in OR (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $125k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.32%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,568
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5648 Foothill Blvd #31	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	1mo	$100,000	$66	99
5648 Foothill Blvd Spc 10	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	22mo	$130,000	$86	74
5648 Foothill Blvd Spc 25	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	24mo	$127,700	$89	72
5648 Foothill Blvd Spc 40	0.00mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,581 (+5%)	14mo	$245,000	$155	72
405 Magerle Ln	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,620 (+7%)	6mo	$355,000	$219	51
315 W Evans Creek Rd #75	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-11%)	14mo	$82,000	$61	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $20,678
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $65,600
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97526

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,028 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $672

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,178

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
227 Westbrook Dr Rogue River, OR	3.0	2.0	1361	$2,250	$1.65	21d	1	0.27mi
452 Pine St Unit 446 Rogue River, OR	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	13d	1	0.77mi
315 Cedar St Unit B Rogue River, OR	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,850	$1.34	43d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   price $125,000
3. 2026-01-26
   price $145,000
4. 2025-11-29
   price $150,000
5. 2025-09-18
   price $169,900
6. 2025-08-12
   price $179,999
7. 2025-06-25
   listed $190,000 Active
8. 2017-06-27
   soldstatus $40,000 631-char remark

   Show marketing remark (631 chars)

   This Home is priced to SELL In a Beautiful 55+ Park. Home is a double wide 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1512 Square Feet, built by Ombudsman in 1997. Kitchen has a small dining area, lots of counter space and storage, refrigerator. Freezer, Washer and Dryer are also included in sale, separate dining room, den that could also work as an office, vaulted ceilings, master bedroom with bath that has separate shower and a soaking tub, double sink vanity, skylight, slider to the covered deck, storage area (2 levels). This home is being sold AS IS. Owner is in the process of removing personal items. Home will need carpet and some loving TLC.

9. 2017-01-31
   listed $59,000 631-char remark

   Show marketing remark (631 chars)

   This Home is priced to SELL In a Beautiful 55+ Park. Home is a double wide 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1512 Square Feet, built by Ombudsman in 1997. Kitchen has a small dining area, lots of counter space and storage, refrigerator. Freezer, Washer and Dryer are also included in sale, separate dining room, den that could also work as an office, vaulted ceilings, master bedroom with bath that has separate shower and a soaking tub, double sink vanity, skylight, slider to the covered deck, storage area (2 levels). This home is being sold AS IS. Owner is in the process of removing personal items. Home will need carpet and some loving TLC.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥95°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,947
• − Management: −$1,947
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $6,509
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,562
• After-tax cash flow: $6,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogue River SD 35
• NCES district ID: 4110680
• Math proficiency: 30% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,632
• Composite: 34.12/100
• National rank: #10284
• State rank: #129 of 183 in OR

Livability — Rogue River

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #6542

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Josephine County · 73,366 people
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• Population (ZIP): 36,036
• Household income: $61,019
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1407.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -257.77%
• Current HPI: 326.3247
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+111.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $125,000 MLSCO
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $145,000 MLSCO
• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $150,000 MLSCO
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $169,900 MLSCO
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $179,999 MLSCO
• 2025-06-25 Listed $190,000 MLSCO
• 2017-06-27 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MLSCO
• 2017-01-31 Listed $59,000 MLSCO