290 Bell Ford Rd · Fordland, MO 65706

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 882 sqft · Other public records

Built 1947 2.82 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy peaceful country living on your own 3 acres with this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home. Thoughtfully updated in 2015, the home offers a warm, inviting kitchen with an island and custom cabinets--perfect for cooking and gathering. A main-floor bedroom and bath add convenience, while two additional bedrooms upstairs provide flexible space. The partial basement offers extra storage or workspace, and all essential living areas are fully functional from the main floor. With a bit of TLC, this property can truly shine. This is a short-sale opportunity--perfect for homeowners, investors, or anyone looking for value and space in the country.

Key facts

• 2.82 acre lot
• Built 1947

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#622 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fordland R-III (rural): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #191 of 324 in MO (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fordland Elem. (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 285 students, 49% FRL); Fordland Middle (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #220 of 391 statewide, top 59%, 139 students, 36% FRL); Fordland High (math 24% / reading 74%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 186 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 138 active listings in the ZIP; 168 units permitted in Webster County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Webster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,691 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.92%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,151
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $9,452
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65706

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,147 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $395/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $901

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $262	-5% $228	+0% $194	+5% $160	+10% $126
Rent	-10% $103	-5% $149	+0% $194	+5% $239	+10% $284
Rate	-1.0pp $254	-0.5pp $224	base $194	+0.5pp $163	+1.0pp $131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-12-24
   historical
2. 2025-12-23
   listed $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $395 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,164 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$769/yr (+$64/mo · 195.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$395
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,101
• − Management: −$1,101
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $354
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$85
• After-tax cash flow: $2,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fordland R-III
• NCES district ID: 2912180
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $43,075
• Composite: 31.33/100
• National rank: #6000
• State rank: #191 of 324 in MO

Livability — Fordland

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #21454

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,479

Population outlook (Webster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,400 people
• By 2030: 40,125 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 41,169 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 41,286 · +4.8%
• By 2075: 40,104 · +1.8%
• By 2100: 33,683 · -14.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Webster

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.2) · D 18.4% · R 80.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.2pp toward R · 2008: -29.0pp · 2024: -62.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.2 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+57.9 2012: R+40.8 2008: R+29.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.05%
• Current HPI: 235.6143
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-24 Delisted — SOMO
• 2025-12-23 Listed $120,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $395 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.