10229 Royal Oaks Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1960 7,535 sqft lot Est $139k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.8/15.0

Listing remarks

HVAC Replaced (2024) - Water heater replaced (2022) - Roof replaced (2019) - Pex Plumbing throughout the home - Corner lot - Never flooded - Private driveway - Fully fenced with controlled access driveway gate - Functional layout - Cedar closets - Original Hardwood floors ( No carpet ) - Exotic Granite Kitchen Countertops - VERY WELL MAINTAINED HOME.

Key facts

• Hvac replaced
• Granite countertops
• Roof replaced

Tags

• HVAC REPLACED
• WATER HEATER REPLACED
• ROOF REPLACED
• CORNER LOT
• NATURAL WOOD FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($731/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,466 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.63%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10214 Bretton Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,126 (+1%)	3mo	$125,000	$111	87
10317 Kelburn Dr	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,107 (-1%)	2mo	$175,000	$158	83
7261 Boggess Rd	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,176 (+6%)	1mo	$110,000	$94	74
7314 Bigwood St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,122 (+1%)	2mo	$90,000	$80	65
7234 Boggess Rd	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,236 (+11%)	1mo	$168,000	$136	62
10329 Wicklowe St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,194 (+7%)	2mo	$149,000	$125	57
10414 Onslow St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,212 (+9%)	3mo	$199,500	$165	57
7218 Bretshire Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,013 (-9%)	3mo	$109,000	$108	55
7421 Claiborne St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,070 (-4%)	0mo	$129,900	$121	55
6015 Langley Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,245 (+12%)	2mo	$95,000	$76	52
7321 Wiley Rd	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,262 (+13%)	2mo	$179,900	$143	51
7437 Navasota St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-10%)	2mo	$165,000	$165	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $72,708
• Equity at exit: $128,684

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $201,559
• Equity at exit: $262,551

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,525 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,854/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,448

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $106	+0% $61	+5% $16	+10% $-30
Rent	-10% $-60	-5% $1	+0% $61	+5% $121	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $102	base $61	+0.5pp $19	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	25d	1	0.09mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	21d	1	0.41mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	44d	1	0.42mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	44d	1	0.66mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	44d	1	0.66mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	44d	1	0.66mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	0.94mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	19d	1	0.95mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.96mi
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	44d	1	1.11mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	44d	1	1.32mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	44d	1	1.35mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	8d	1	1.39mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,199	$1.34	2d	5	1.40mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	6d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-13
   listed $160,000 Active
4. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,854 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$74/yr (+$6/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,854
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,464
• − Management: −$1,464
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$1,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$457
• After-tax cash flow: $1,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,854 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.