3089 Skipper Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$338,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,726 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1995 3,920 sqft lot Est $349k · at est. $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a Short Sale subject to existing lender's approval which could result in delays. BRING OFFERS! AS IS. BEST SQUARE FOOT PRICE IN NEW CHERRY ESTATES! Clean, neat, spacious, and attractive, this furnished double wide manufactured home in the waterfront community of Cherry Estates in St. James City, is move-in ready. Built in 1995 the home has two bedrooms, two baths, a carport, indoor utility, and an enclosed, finished porch under truss with vinyl windows. There is a separate covered hot tub area. It has central heat and air and a 3-tab composition asphalt roof. At the water, the property has a concrete seawall, boat dock, boat lift and davits - all you need for easy waterfront living on Pine Island! Although there is no mandatory HOA, there are central sewage, road maintenance, street lighting, and water consumption fees. Per the seller, these fees are $90 a year. Central water is provided by the Pine Island Water Association

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Fishing from dock
• Gulf access

Tags

• GULF ACCESS
• RENOVATED INTERIOR
• ENCLOSED AIR-CONDITIONED LANAI
• DOCK WITH COVERED BOAT LIFT
• FISHING FROM DOCK
• QUIET STREET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Annual association fee ($25/year); Community boat facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Attached carport (1 space); Driveway parking; Paved surfaces; Two parking spaces total
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Vinyl siding; Single-story; Entry at level 1; East-facing front
• Construction: Shingle roof; Vinyl-sided manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Open deck/porch; Patio; Porch; Storage; Outbuilding; Seawall; Canal access (navigable); West exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Refrigerator; Trash compactor; Wine cooler; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar / breakfast area
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; At least one bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Breakfast area; Closet cabinetry; Cathedral ceilings; Dual sinks; Kitchen island; Combined living/dining area; Shower-only bath; Separate shower; Cable TV available; Bar; Workshop; Furnishing negotiable; Single-hung windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $338k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $587 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $338k).
• Recommended offer: $333k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($333k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $332,930 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.85%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,652
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3122 Binnacle Ln	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,512 (-12%)	11mo	$305,000	$202	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-17,035
• Equity at exit: $50,397

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $34,750
• Equity at exit: $29,224

Cash invested: $94,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,773
• Tax from tax record: −$471 /mo · $5,649/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$904
• Net cashflow: $587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,560

Max offer price $338,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,500
• Closing costs: $10,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	24d	1	0.06mi
4011 Galt Island Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,000	$2.72	24d	1	0.21mi
2951 York Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	24d	1	0.26mi
3811 Emerald Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	24d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $338,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $338,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $338,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $338,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $338,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $338,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $338,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $338,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $338,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $338,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $338,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $338,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $338,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,649 · $471/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,649 · $471/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,637
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,933
• − Property taxes: −$5,649
• − Insurance: −$6,808
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,131
• − Management: −$4,131
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$9,833
• Taxable income: $2,128
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$511
• After-tax cash flow: $6,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+734.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $338,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-05-10 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $369,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $379,999 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $394,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-16 Listed $414,998 FORTMLS
• 2021-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2011-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2011-01-06 Sold (MLS) $165,000 FORTMLS
• 2010-12-09 Price Changed $180,000 FORTMLS
• 2005-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $370,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-09 Sold (MLS) $370,000 FORTMLS
• 2005-10-17 Price Changed $385,000 FORTMLS
• 2005-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $329,000 Public Records
• 1999-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $132,900 Public Records
• 1993-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,649 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.