5405 Winchester Ave · Ventnor City, NJ 08406

$549,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,590 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1900 Est $529k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Oil tanks are REMOVED, No Further Action Letter in hand! All major Structural Renovations completed! Approved Architectural plans available to add additional square footage to maximize your BAY VIEWS! Discover a rare opportunity to create your dream shore home at 5405 Winchester Ave, nestled in Ventnor City’s iconic St. Leonard’s Tract—one of the most historic and prestigious neighborhoods along the Jersey Shore. Just one house off the bay, this coveted bay-block property offers stunning bay views and is only three short blocks from the beach and boardwalk. You’ll be within easy reach of Ventnor’s vibrant dining, shopping, and entertainment. With potential for

Key facts

• Expansive decks
• Bay views
• Built 1900

Tags

• APPROVED ARCHITECTURAL PLANS
• BAY VIEWS
• EXPANSIVE DECKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $549k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $536 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $548k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $541k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.1% in Ventnor City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#202 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A-, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Ventnor City School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #266 of 472 in NJ (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+57.3%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,481/mo this rent would consume 95% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 329% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $154k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $540,765 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.18%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $529,470
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6217 Monmouth Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,593 (+0%)	1mo	$396,000	$249	73
202 N Suffolk Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-4%)	15mo	$404,000	$266	68
207 N Harvard Ave	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,671 (+5%)	1mo	$735,000	$440	67
3 N Vassar Sq	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,482 (-7%)	7mo	$750,000	$506	64
6303 Monmouth Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-6%)	5mo	$499,900	$333	59
118 N Portland Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+9%)	3mo	$675,000	$391	54
213 N Derby Ave	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,464 (-8%)	16mo	$507,000	$346	53
3 N Marion Ave	0.33mi	3/3.0	1,376 (-14%)	9mo	$850,000	$618	52
312 N Oxford Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,500 (-6%)	24mo	$495,000	$330	50
607 N Dorset Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,772 (+11%)	3mo	$544,900	$308	42
103 N Columbia Ave	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,400 (-12%)	16mo	$290,000	$207	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-25,784
• Equity at exit: $81,858

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $153,663
• Equity at exit: $47,467

Cash invested: $153,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08406

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Rents YoY: 57.3%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$686 /mo · $8,235/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,151
• Net cashflow: $536

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,803

Max offer price $549,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $915	-5% $726	+0% $536	+5% $346	+10% $156
Rent	-10% $103	-5% $319	+0% $536	+5% $752	+10% $969
Rate	-1.0pp $812	-0.5pp $675	base $536	+0.5pp $394	+1.0pp $249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,250
• Closing costs: $16,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 S Surrey Ave Unit 1308991P Ventnor City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1087	$7,267	$6.69	44d	1	0.09mi
3 S Surrey Ave Unit 1309004P Ventnor City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1087	$8,055	$7.41	21d	1	0.09mi
1 N Austin Ave Unit 1308998P Ventnor City, NJ	3.0	3.0	2195	$7,184	$3.27	21d	1	0.32mi
24 N Baton Rouge Ave Ventnor City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1350	$18,000	$13.33	13d	1	0.37mi
5000 Boardwalk #1009 Ventnor City, NJ	2.0	2.5	1893	$17,000	$8.98	21d	1	0.39mi
406 N Dorset Ave Ventnor City, NJ	4.0	1.5	1568	$13,000	$8.29	13d	1	0.50mi
100 S Berkley Sq Unit 4H Atlantic City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1520	$3,200	$2.11	21d	1	0.63mi
610A N Victoria Ave Ventnor City, NJ	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,550	$1.42	21d	1	0.68mi
7 S Richards Ave Ventnor City, NJ	4.0	2.0	1600	$25,000	$15.62	13d	1	0.78mi
21 N Laclede Pl Atlantic City, NJ	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	21d	1	0.83mi
109 N Wissahickon Ave Unit B Ventnor City, NJ	4.0	3.5	2000	$25,000	$12.50	21d	1	0.84mi
36 Chelsea Ct Atlantic City, NJ	3.0	2.5	2100	$3,300	$1.57	13d	1	1.02mi
3914 South Blvd Atlantic City, NJ	2.0	2.5	1700	$3,400	$2.00	21d	1	1.05mi
6 N Melbourne Ave Ventnor City, NJ	4.0	3.5	2028	$3,000	$1.48	44d	1	1.05mi
3851 Boardwalk Atlantic City, NJ	2.0	1.0–2.0	785	$27,500	$35.03	21d	5	1.08mi
3809 Ventnor Ave #6 Atlantic City, NJ	3.0	1.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	21d	1	1.08mi
512 N Harrisburg Ave Atlantic City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,800	$2.42	13d	1	1.15mi
3636 Winchester Ave Atlantic City, NJ	3.0	1.0	1094	$1,995	$1.82	21d	1	1.19mi
119 N Belmont Ave Unit June 2026 Margate City, NJ	4.0	2.5	2044	$10,000	$4.89	13d	1	1.31mi
7701 Atlantic Ave Margate City, NJ	1.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1660	$75,000	$45.18	44d	4	1.45mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $549,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 669-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $549,000 Active 14 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $65,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,753
• − Property taxes: −$8,235
• − Insurance: −$2,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,262
• − Management: −$5,262
• − Depreciation: −$15,971
• Taxable loss: −$2,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$590
• After-tax cash flow: $7,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ventnor City School District
• NCES district ID: 3416680
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $52,220
• Composite: 32.96/100
• National rank: #5588
• State rank: #266 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Ventnor City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #5716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ventnor City, NJ
• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• City population: 8,972
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 8,972
• Household income: $69,099
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 329.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 9% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.99%
• Current HPI: 449.3494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 57.28%
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B