20727 Patriot Park Ln · Houston, TX 77449

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,201 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 2005 3,275 sqft lot $182/sqft · at area comps Est $222k · at est. $64/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3 bed, 2 bath home in the sought-after CYPRESS FAIRBANKS school district. This MOVE-IN READY property features tile floors, a newly remodeled kitchen with updated appliances, and a spacious living/dining area. The master bedroom includes a walk-in closet and private bathroom. Outside, a lovely deck is perfect for entertaining or gardening. Enjoy peace of mind with NEVER FLOODING. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity! Schedule a showing today before it's gone!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Lovely deck
• Never flooding

Tags

• NEWLY REMODELED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• LOVELY DECK
• NEVER FLOODING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,096 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.42%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,208
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -1.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20648 Patriot Park Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+0%)	2mo	$224,900	$187	95
20603 Sycamore Crest Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,201 (0%)	2mo	$164,990	$137	86
6635 Rusty Ridge Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+0%)	2mo	$205,000	$170	86
20918 Walder Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+10%)	3mo	$219,600	$167	75
6233 Lone Prairie Way	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,260 (+5%)	7mo	$219,900	$175	71
6710 Wellington Meadows Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,221 (+2%)	6mo	$220,000	$180	69
6318 Torrance Elms Ct	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,044 (-13%)	2mo	$216,000	$207	68
6450 New World Dr	0.45mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,176 (-2%)	2mo	$218,000	$185	67
19538 Buckland Park Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,221 (+2%)	2mo	$228,000	$187	65
6205 Lone Prairie Way	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,336 (+11%)	5mo	$215,000	$161	62
6306 Wellington Meadows Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,066 (-11%)	7mo	$210,000	$197	48
21170 Northern Colony Ct	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,375 (+14%)	4mo	$225,000	$164	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-35,891
• Equity at exit: $50,031

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-52,068
• Equity at exit: $50,159

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,964 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$423 /mo · $5,077/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $188,096

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6619 Rusty Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,895	$1.31	3d	1	0.23mi
20507 Barker Bend Ct Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,825	$1.23	43d	1	0.27mi
20967 Young Meadows Way Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,795	$1.43	7d	1	0.33mi
6810 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$2,683	$2.33	1d	56	0.46mi
6502 Wellington Meadows Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,500	$1.06	12d	1	0.49mi
21035 Carmel Valley Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,791	$1.25	24d	1	0.54mi
20978 Farm to Market Road 529 Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,725	$1.68	43d	1	0.68mi
20978 Farm to Market Road 529 Unit SWFS2 Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,725	$1.68	2d	1	0.68mi
6010 Diantha St Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,856	$1.27	43d	1	0.90mi
19735 Plantation Grove Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,719	$1.22	2d	1	0.92mi
19501 W Little York Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,250	$1.26	24d	1	0.95mi
19501 W Little York Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,250	$1.26	43d	1	0.95mi
19434 Glenway Falls Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,800	$1.36	43d	1	1.10mi
21627 Calico Bush Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$3,800	$2.67	16d	1	1.12mi
19917 Stoney Haven Dr Cypress, TX	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,579	$1.49	43d	1	1.19mi
19299 W Little York Rd Unit ACS2 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1112	$1,984	$1.78	43d	1	1.19mi
21447 FM 529 Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,205	$2.21	3d	26	1.19mi
5906 Grand Colony Dr Katy, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1143	$1,720	$1.50	3d	9	1.36mi
5751 Greenhouse Rd Katy, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	963	$1,747	$1.81	1d	59	1.43mi
19715 Swan Valley Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,886	$1.37	43d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $64 · $768/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-03-24
    listed $219,000 Active 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3 bed, 2 bath home in the sought-after CYPRESS FAIRBANKS school district. This MOVE-IN READY property features tile floors, a newly remodeled kitchen with updated appliances, and a spacious living/dining area. The master bedroom includes a walk-in closet and private bathroom. Outside, a lovely deck is perfect for entertaining or gardening. Enjoy peace of mind with NEVER FLOODING. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity! Schedule a showing today before it's gone!

16. 2019-03-12
    soldstatus
17. 2019-03-11
    soldstatus Sold 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    CUTE CORNER LOT in lake community. BEAUTIFUL OPEN concept with ceiling fans throughout. SPLIT floor plan for PRIVACY. HOA maintains grass in front and side of this lovely cottage. Great neighborhood has walking trail around lake. Home has been well kept and no flooding. ALL appliances are included!

18. 2019-03-08
    status Pending 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    CUTE CORNER LOT in lake community. BEAUTIFUL OPEN concept with ceiling fans throughout. SPLIT floor plan for PRIVACY. HOA maintains grass in front and side of this lovely cottage. Great neighborhood has walking trail around lake. Home has been well kept and no flooding. ALL appliances are included!

19. 2019-02-26
    status Option Pending 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    CUTE CORNER LOT in lake community. BEAUTIFUL OPEN concept with ceiling fans throughout. SPLIT floor plan for PRIVACY. HOA maintains grass in front and side of this lovely cottage. Great neighborhood has walking trail around lake. Home has been well kept and no flooding. ALL appliances are included!

20. 2019-02-20
    listed $146,900 Active 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    CUTE CORNER LOT in lake community. BEAUTIFUL OPEN concept with ceiling fans throughout. SPLIT floor plan for PRIVACY. HOA maintains grass in front and side of this lovely cottage. Great neighborhood has walking trail around lake. Home has been well kept and no flooding. ALL appliances are included!

21. 2016-04-07
    soldstatus
22. 2016-03-28
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2016-02-27
    status Pending
24. 2016-02-14
    status Option Pending
25. 2016-02-07
    listed $122,000 Active
26. 2010-07-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,077 · $423/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,077 · $423/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$5,077
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$5,777
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,387
• After-tax cash flow: $-713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+79.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2019-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-03-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-02-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-02-20 Listed $146,900 HARMLS
• 2016-04-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-03-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-02-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-02-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-02-07 Listed $122,000 HARMLS
• 2010-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,077 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.