12 Eagle Ln · South Hero, VT 05486

$39,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 687 sqft · Manufactured · 296 Days on market

Built 1990 $57/sqft · 40% below area Est $66k · 40% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

On a generous lot in Apple Island Resort, this furnished 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom seasonal cottage offers an inviting retreat with thoughtful updates inside and out. Step inside to find thoughtful updates, including a new glass-enclosed shower by installed by Bath Fitter in 2024, new blinds in the airy sunroom, and an upgraded front deck perfect for relaxing outdoors. The central AC/heating system, replaced just five years ago, runs beautifully and ensures comfort throughout the season. The sunroom itself is a standout, offering generous space and a side-by-side washer and dryer. The open flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas enhances the bright and inviting atmosphere, making the cottage feel both spacious and comfortable. Out back, a dedicated storage shed provides plenty of room for all your seasonal gear. Lush perennial plantings frame the front, while garden beds along the sides provide further opportunities for flowers, fruits, or vegetables. Beyond the cottage, Apple Island Resort offers an array of amenities, from a marina with boat slips, a launch, and seasonal pontoon rentals, to a challenging 9-hole par-3 golf course. This cottage happens to be just a few cottages down from the golf club and course making it a desirable location at the resort! Spend summer days by the outdoor pool and hot tub, stop by the general store for essentials, or explore the resort with ease thanks to convenient golf cart rentals. The annual lease amount for 2026 is $9,047.

Key facts

• Perennial plantings
• Garden beds
• Upgraded front deck

Tags

• GLASS ENCLOSED SHOWER
• UPGRADED FRONT DECK
• CENTRAL AC HEATING SYSTEM
• DEDICATED STORAGE SHED
• PERENNIAL PLANTINGS
• GARDEN BEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $761 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.7% vs local median 1.2% in South Hero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: Folsum Education & Community Center (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #96 of 192 statewide, top 57%, 141 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 22 units permitted in Grand Isle County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand Isle County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $34,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.57%
• DSCR: 4.72
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,500
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: -40.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Heron Ln	0.03mi	1/1.0 (-1)	640 (-7%)	8mo	$60,000	$94	75
22 Island Cir	0.07mi	1/1.5 (-1)	741 (+8%)	10mo	$95,000	$128	68
14 Perch Cir	0.19mi	1/1.0 (-1)	726 (+6%)	10mo	$35,000	$48	68
1 Pike Cir	0.06mi	1/1.0 (-1)	612 (-11%)	10mo	$43,000	$70	66
23 Eagle Ln	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	615 (-10%)	13mo	$44,332	$72	63
5 Eagle Ln	0.04mi	1/1.0 (-1)	770 (+12%)	22mo	$113,000	$147	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.86×
• Total profit: $42,114
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.07×
• Total profit: $99,030
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05486

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,258 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $151/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $761

Break-even live

Break-even rent $295

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $783	-5% $772	+0% $761	+5% $749	+10% $738
Rent	-10% $661	-5% $711	+0% $761	+5% $810	+10% $860
Rate	-1.0pp $780	-0.5pp $770	base $761	+0.5pp $750	+1.0pp $740

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,000 Active 296 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,000 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 293 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 292 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 291 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 290 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 289 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,000 Active 288 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,000 Active 287 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $39,000 Active 284 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,000 Active 283 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,000 Active 282 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,000 Active 280 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,000 Active 278 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,000 Active 277 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,000 Active 276 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 275 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $39,000 1493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    On a generous lot in Apple Island Resort, this furnished 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom seasonal cottage offers an inviting retreat with thoughtful updates inside and out. Step inside to find thoughtful updates, including a new glass-enclosed shower by installed by Bath Fitter in 2024, new blinds in the airy sunroom, and an upgraded front deck perfect for relaxing outdoors. The central AC/heating system, replaced just five years ago, runs beautifully and ensures comfort throughout the season. The sunroom itself is a standout, offering generous space and a side-by-side washer and dryer. The open flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas enhances the bright and inviting atmosphere, making the cottage feel both spacious and comfortable. Out back, a dedicated storage shed provides plenty of room for all your seasonal gear. Lush perennial plantings frame the front, while garden beds along the sides provide further opportunities for flowers, fruits, or vegetables. Beyond the cottage, Apple Island Resort offers an array of amenities, from a marina with boat slips, a launch, and seasonal pontoon rentals, to a challenging 9-hole par-3 golf course. This cottage happens to be just a few cottages down from the golf club and course making it a desirable location at the resort! Spend summer days by the outdoor pool and hot tub, stop by the general store for essentials, or explore the resort with ease thanks to convenient golf cart rentals. The annual lease amount for 2026 is $9,047.

19. 2025-08-29
    listed $48,000 Active 1493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    On a generous lot in Apple Island Resort, this furnished 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom seasonal cottage offers an inviting retreat with thoughtful updates inside and out. Step inside to find thoughtful updates, including a new glass-enclosed shower by installed by Bath Fitter in 2024, new blinds in the airy sunroom, and an upgraded front deck perfect for relaxing outdoors. The central AC/heating system, replaced just five years ago, runs beautifully and ensures comfort throughout the season. The sunroom itself is a standout, offering generous space and a side-by-side washer and dryer. The open flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas enhances the bright and inviting atmosphere, making the cottage feel both spacious and comfortable. Out back, a dedicated storage shed provides plenty of room for all your seasonal gear. Lush perennial plantings frame the front, while garden beds along the sides provide further opportunities for flowers, fruits, or vegetables. Beyond the cottage, Apple Island Resort offers an array of amenities, from a marina with boat slips, a launch, and seasonal pontoon rentals, to a challenging 9-hole par-3 golf course. This cottage happens to be just a few cottages down from the golf club and course making it a desirable location at the resort! Spend summer days by the outdoor pool and hot tub, stop by the general store for essentials, or explore the resort with ease thanks to convenient golf cart rentals. The annual lease amount for 2026 is $9,047.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $151 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $446 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: +$295/yr (+$25/mo · 195.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$151
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,208
• − Management: −$1,208
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $9,016
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,164
• After-tax cash flow: $6,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — South Hero

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,536

Population outlook (Grand Isle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,600 people
• By 2030: 6,362 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 5,766 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 5,294 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 4,505 · -31.7%
• By 2100: 3,726 · -43.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 6% Italian 5%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grand Isle

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.1) · D 59.2% · R 38.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.1 2020: D+22.6 2016: D+16.1 2012: D+26.1 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.88%
• Current HPI: 232.6594
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-18.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $39,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $48,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $151 · +18.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.