Is 1934 Pleasant Grove Dr in Sienna, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.3% cap rate and $-983/mo modeled cash flow at a $579,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1934 Pleasant Grove Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $4,927/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 40.96

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +12.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.5/30.0
Schools +4.6/10.0
Appreciation +4.2/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.5/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
DSCR +0.8/10.0

$579,000

1934 Pleasant Grove Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,993 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 8,777 sqft lot Garage $193/sqft · 11% below area Est $651k · 11% under $109/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Experience luxury living in this Sienna masterpiece. 3-car garage, 3 bedrooms down, 2 half bathrooms, in and under cabinets lighting, customized drapery, fully remolded bathrooms. This home radiates curb appeal with a lush front lawn that leads into a bright, open-concept interior boasting soaring ceilings, rich wood flooring, and an abundance of natural light. Work from home in the sun-drenched private office before entertaining in the elegant dining area, complete with a sophisticated dry bar. The breathtaking living room features a floor-to-ceiling tiled fireplace and massive windows.

Key facts

Private office
Natural light
3 car garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $579k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-983 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $405k (30.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $493k (14.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $405k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1543 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $4,927/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($562k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $405,338 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.85% ✗
Cap rate: 4.26%
Cash-on-cash: -7.28%
DSCR: 0.68
GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $651,120
List price: $579,000
Delta: -11.08%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9010 Bayou Spring Ct	0.06mi	4/3.0	3,180 (+6%)	2mo	$605,000	$190	81
2006 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.28mi	4/3.5	2,922 (-2%)	1mo	$600,878	$206	80
1939 Creekwood Cv	0.08mi	4/4.0	3,344 (+12%)	4mo	$594,990	$178	73
9510 Spring Rose Dr	0.41mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,831 (-5%)	0mo	$588,989	$208	65
9311 Crescent Mill Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,577 (-14%)	1mo	$419,900	$163	62
2610 Lazy Vine Ln	0.74mi	4/4.5	2,907 (-3%)	3mo	$715,000	$246	56
10143 Deerpark Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	2,874 (-4%)	4mo	$475,000	$165	54
10107 Deerpark Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5	3,273 (+9%)	0mo	$500,000	$153	52
10039 Cypress Path	0.57mi	4/3.5	3,348 (+12%)	2mo	$585,000	$175	50
2310 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.51mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,372 (+13%)	1mo	$489,900	$145	49
8815 Iron Forge Rd	0.65mi	4/3.5	3,275 (+9%)	4mo	$535,000	$163	49
8919 Autumn Pine Dr	0.59mi	4/3.5	3,439 (+15%)	5mo	$597,000	$174	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -22.0%
Equity multiple: 0.15×
Total profit: $-137,267
Equity at exit: $121,433

10-year hold

IRR: -20.8%
Equity multiple: -0.38×
Total profit: $-223,534
Equity at exit: $112,476

Cash invested: $162,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 188 active · 28 under contract
Months of supply: 28.9 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $575,990 ($187/sqft)
Median days on market: 94 d
This list price: 51% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +16.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

Home prices YoY: -0.8%
Rents YoY: -0.1%
Active inventory: 1543
Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $4,927 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$3,036
Tax from tax record: −$1,489 /mo · $17,868/yr
Insurance: −$241
HOA: −$109
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,035
Net cashflow: $-983

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,172

Max offer price $405,338

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-655	-5% $-819	+0% $-983	+5% $-1,147	+10% $-1,311
Rent	-10% $-1,372	-5% $-1,178	+0% $-983	+5% $-788	+10% $-594
Rate	-1.0pp $-691	-0.5pp $-836	base $-983	+0.5pp $-1,133	+1.0pp $-1,286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $144,750
Closing costs: $17,370
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	52d	1	0.09mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2143	$5,125	$2.39	0d	1	0.32mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	71d	1	0.32mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$5,700	$2.66	3d	1	0.38mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	25d	1	0.38mi
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	35d	1	0.46mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	93d	1	0.66mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	59d	1	1.04mi
1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2337	$2,750	$1.18	28d	1	1.16mi
10614 Kingston Spring Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2800	$3,499	$1.25	1d	1	1.16mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Community association (SPRAI)Association fee $1,307 annuallyCommunity pool

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage3 garage spaces
Security: Prewired securitySmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2022Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Brick construction
Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckSprinkler/irrigationTennis court(s)Backs to greenbelt/parkSubdivision setting

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGas cooktopDisposalMicrowaveTrash compactorPantryQuartz counters
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor)Bedroom (First floor)Bedroom (First floor)Bedroom (Second floor)
Flooring: CarpetTileWood
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms2 half bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)Has heatingHas cooling
Interior features: High ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPots & pan drawersPantryQuartz countersSelf-closing cabinet doorsWired for soundCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsGas and wood-burning fireplace (1)
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $579,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $579,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $579,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $579,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $579,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $579,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $579,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $579,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $579,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $579,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $579,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $579,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $579,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $579,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $579,000 Active 22 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $579,000 Active 21 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $579,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $579,000 Active 19 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $579,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $579,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $579,000 Active 16 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $579,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $579,000 Active 14 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $579,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $579,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $579,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $579,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $579,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $579,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $579,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $579,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $579,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $579,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $579,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-06-27

pricedays on marketlisting id $579,000 Active 1 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $599,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $599,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $599,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $599,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $599,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $599,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $599,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $599,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $599,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $599,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $599,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $599,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $599,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $599,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $599,000 Active 52 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $17,868 · $1,489/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $17,868 · $1,489/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $59,127
− Mortgage interest: −$32,433
− Property taxes: −$17,868
− Insurance: −$2,895
− Repairs & maintenance: −$4,730
− Management: −$4,730
− HOA: −$1,308
− Depreciation: −$16,844
Taxable loss: −$21,681

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,203
After-tax cash flow: $-6,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,965–$44,895 screening

This Sienna home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, fully remodeled bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

District: Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID: 4819650
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $82,360
Composite: 44.61/100
National rank: #2779
State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place: Sienna, TX
County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 84,221
Household income: $129,151
Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
Current HPI: 212.3573
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

2026-06-26 Listed $579,000 HARMLS
2026-06-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-04-10 Listed $599,000 HARMLS
2026-02-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-02-12 Listed $629,000 HARMLS
2026-02-10 Price Changed $629,000 HARMLS
2026-01-19 Listed $649,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+114.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $17,868 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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