18053 Mellon St · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$369,998

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,463 sqft · Land · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 5,040 sqft lot $284/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. This new two-story home boasts a modern layout with an open-concept floorplan consisting of a stylish kitchen, dining room and family room on the first floor. A convenient bedroom is located toward the back of the home, perfect as a guest suite or home office. Five additional bedrooms can be found upstairs, including the luxurious owner’s suite, surrounding a versatile loft space. For those who call Rye Ranch® home, this community puts you close to countless shopping, dining and entertainment options. Embark on adventures like never before at amazing parks and recreational sites just nearby. Right across the street are highly rated schools, perfect for growing

Key facts

• Highly rated schools
• Versatile loft space
• Stylish kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• GUEST SUITE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• VERSATILE LOFT SPACE
• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required (CCMC Brad Jeffers); Monthly HOA fee $284.33; Association approval required; HOA covers internet and grounds maintenance; Pets allowed; Community features include sidewalks and deed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Canal/lake irrigation and private water; Private sewer; BB/HS internet available; Cable available; Electricity available and connected; Sewer available and connected; Water available and connected; Underground utilities; Sprinkler recycled
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Under construction (projected completion May 12, 2026); Faces northeast; Located in a planned development (PD-MU)
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by Lennar (Jefferson model)
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Sidewalk; Irrigation equipment; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Irrigation with reclaimed water; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Freezer; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Inside utility; Loft

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $311,182 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.26%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-75,926
• Equity at exit: $55,168

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-110,032
• Equity at exit: $31,991

Cash invested: $103,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,259/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$284
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,249

Max offer price $350,850

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $101	-5% $-4	+0% $-108	+5% $-213	+10% $-318
Rent	-10% $-354	-5% $-231	+0% $-108	+5% $15	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $-14	base $-108	+0.5pp $-204	+1.0pp $-302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $284 · $3,408/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $369,998 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,259 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,071 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$812/yr (+$68/mo · 35.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$2,259
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,987
• − Management: −$2,987
• − HOA: −$3,408
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable loss: −$7,639
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,833
• After-tax cash flow: $533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $369,998 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid