30 First St · Mongaup Valley, NY 12701

$165,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 779 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 338 Days on market

Built 1940 7,500 sqft lot $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Adorable cottage with Motor Boat lake rights to Sacket Lake. Family owned and cared for, for over 30 years this 2-3 bedroom, has a full interior bath with additional exterior accessed bathroom, huge screened in rear porch for summertime relaxing after a day on the lake!! Level wooded lot, small outbuilding for storage, secondary side street, and best of all you can walk to lake access and your dock!! Minutes to Monticello amenities, casino, bethel woods and more! Hurry!!!!

Key facts

• Level wooded lot
• Walk to lake access
• Lake rights

Tags

• LAKE RIGHTS
• SCREENED IN REAR PORCH
• LEVEL WOODED LOT
• SMALL OUTBUILDING
• WALK TO LAKE ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association with annual fee of $350; Association fee covers common area maintenance and other items; Additional annual lake association dues of $350

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no carport)
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEG; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Sewer connected; Private trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area and building area reported from public records/other sources
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Back yard; Level lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedrooms not itemized by name/level in data)
• Flooring: Linoleum; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Other heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Other interior features; Deck, Porch and screened porch
• Laundry & utility: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 1.9% in Mongaup Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: George L Cooke School (592 students, 71% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 50% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 338 days — a 12% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 338 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.37%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $105,165
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Central Ave	0.05mi	2/1.0	725 (-7%)	7mo	$98,000	$135	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $95,999
• Equity at exit: $149,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $278,194
• Equity at exit: $321,530

Cash invested: $46,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12701

• Home prices YoY: 16.7%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,592 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$868
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,401/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,476

Max offer price $165,500

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,375
• Closing costs: $4,965
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
443 Sackett Lake Rd Unit 16-3 Monticello, NY	1.0	1.0	950	$1,250	$1.32	21d	1	0.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,500 Active 338 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,500 Active 337 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,500 Active 336 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,500 Active 335 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,500 Active 333 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,500 Active 330 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,500 Active 329 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,500 Active 328 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,500 Active 327 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,500 Active 323 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,500 Active 322 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,500 Active 321 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,500 Active 320 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,500 Active 319 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    status Pending
16. 2026-03-16
    price $172,500
17. 2025-12-31
    price $175,000
18. 2025-08-01
    price $179,000
19. 2025-07-24
    price $187,000
20. 2025-07-23
    price $189,000
21. 2025-07-01
    price $199,000
22. 2025-06-11
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,401 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,599 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: +$198/yr (+$16/mo · 8.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,271
• − Property taxes: −$2,401
• − Insurance: −$828
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,528
• − Management: −$1,528
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$4,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,618
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$388
• After-tax cash flow: $1,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mongaup Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Sullivan County · 12,197 people
• City population: 453
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 12,197
• Household income: $57,222
• Rent vs Own: 63.8% rent · 36.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 31% Black 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.71%
• Current HPI: 507.739
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $172,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $179,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $187,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $189,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-11 Listed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,401 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.