5538 Schluter Rd · Ponder, TX 76259

$169,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,375 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1960 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cash or select owner financing only! Situated on a full acre of property, this unique opportunity offers plenty of space and potential. The property includes two buildings and a septic system that is in good working condition. Currently, there is no electricity connected to the property. Great opportunity for someone looking for flexible possibilities or willing to put in the work to make it their own!

Key facts

• Two buildings
• 1 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• FULL ACRE OF PROPERTY
• TWO BUILDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: County: Denton; Country: United States; Directions: GPS; Geocode confidence: High
• Financial info: Loan type: Treat As Clear; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Covered parking space (1); Garage faces front
• Utilities: Septic system; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Property attached: Yes
• Construction: Built in 1960
• Exterior features: Approximately 1.0 acre lot; Subdivision: Sunny Ranches

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: High speed internet available; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 2
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry or utility appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $568 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.7% in Ponder — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#787 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ponder ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #165 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ponder El (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 754 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $170k implies a 539% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,351 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.32%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $387,750
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11649 Mitchell Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+2%)	3mo	$395,000	$282	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,634
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $54,112
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76259

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,157 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,093/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $568

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,438

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-23
    listed $169,900 Active
15. 1996-06-12
    soldstatus $26,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,093 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,016/yr (+$85/mo · 48.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,093
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,070
• − Management: −$2,070
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $4,338
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,041
• After-tax cash flow: $5,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ponder ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835310
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,768
• Composite: 43.53/100
• National rank: #2987
• State rank: #165 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ponder

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #14394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 6,596
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,596
• Household income: $101,845
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.17%
• Current HPI: 275.4082
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+538.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $169,900 NTREIS
• 1996-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $26,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,093 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.