5 Ryan Rd Unit C · Thornton, NH 03285

$699,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,673 sqft · Condo · 57 Days on market

Built 2024 $656/mo HOA · 13% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience resort-style living at Owl’s Nest Resort, where the natural beauty of New Hampshire’s White Mountains meets the ease of low-maintenance living. Located in the sought-after South Lake community, this turnkey townhome is ideal as a primary residence or four-season retreat. This property has excellent rental history. Just minutes from I-93 and under two hours from Boston, you’ll enjoy effortless access to Waterville Valley, Loon Mountain, scenic lakes, and endless outdoor recreation. Inside, the open-concept design features high-end finishes, a modern kitchen, and a warm, inviting living area perfect for entertaining or unwinding after a day outdoors. The primary s

Key facts

• Open concept design
• High end finishes
• En suite bath

Tags

• SOUGHT AFTER COMMUNITY
• EXCELLENT RENTAL HISTORY
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• HIGH END FINISHES
• MODERN KITCHEN
• EN SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of South Lake Residences at South Lake at Owls Nest; Resort community; Paved private road access
• HOA & community: Condo association with monthly fee; Monthly condo fee of 448.10 (covers condo association fee, landscaping, plowing, trash, water); Annual fee of 2,499 (covers recreation); Association amenities include beach access, building maintenance, exercise facility, recreation facility, snow removal, trash removal

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Community water; Private sewer; 200 Amp electric service; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Multi-level townhouse; Existing construction; Blue exterior; Unit C
• Construction: Built in 2024; Wood frame with vinyl siding; Foam insulation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Beach access; Lake view; Water view; Mountain view; River nearby; Landscaped; Level yard; Recreational nearby; Near golf course; Near snowmobile trails; Sidewalks; Walking trails / trail nearby; Condo development; Neighborhood setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom with bath (on level 1); Master bedroom suite (on level 3)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Living room; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $699k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $477k (31.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $477k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pemi-Baker Regional School District (rural): math 45% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #77 of 171 in NH (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $75k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$120k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($678k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $476,647 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.42%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $283,304
• Equity at exit: $629,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $912,197
• Equity at exit: $1,358,003

Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03285

• Home prices YoY: 29.5%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$874 /mo · $10,485/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$656
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-1,537

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,945

Max offer price $476,647

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,750
• Closing costs: $20,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43 Lafayette Rd Unit 1 Thornton, NH	3.0	2.0	1442	$5,000	$3.47	43d	1	0.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $656 · $7,872/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $699,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $699,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $699,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $699,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $699,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $699,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $699,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $699,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $699,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $699,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $699,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $699,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $699,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $699,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $699,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $699,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,155
• − Property taxes: −$10,485
• − Insurance: −$3,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − HOA: −$7,872
• − Depreciation: −$20,335
• Taxable loss: −$30,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,426
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pemi-Baker Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3399965
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $42,275
• Composite: 49.93/100
• National rank: #4161
• State rank: #77 of 171 in NH

Livability — Thornton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,763

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 14% Lithuanian 12% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.72%
• Current HPI: 468.1616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $699,000 PrimeMLS