5222 Chelan Ln SE #151 · Lacey, WA 98503

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 73 Days on market

Built 1982 Average condition $89/sqft · at area comps Est $120k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very well kept 3 bed 1 3/4 bath home in an all ages park. Fully fenced. large 2 car carport and 2 storage sheds. Newer appliances. All appliances stay. Heat pump for warm winters and cool summers. Covered patio.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Heat pump
• Newer appliances

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• LARGE CARPORT
• STORAGE SHEDS
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• HEAT PUMP
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.77%
• DSCR: 2.77
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,000
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5514 Asotin Ln SE	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	4mo	$125,000	$93	90
5305 Yakima Ln SE	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$75,000	$52	80
5231 Mountain Greens Ln SE #292	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	5mo	$129,950	$89	77
5212 Yakima Ln SE #104	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (+7%)	6mo	$100,000	$70	76
5250 College St SE #26	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,325 (-1%)	4mo	$123,400	$93	73
4500 Ruddell Rd SE #40	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	6mo	$120,000	$93	64
5215 Mountain Green Ln SE	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	24mo	$160,000	$128	63
5516 SE Mt Green Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	23mo	$118,000	$82	62
5532 Chelan Ln SE #47	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	18mo	$87,500	$70	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $52,906
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $143,325
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98503

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,459 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $1,114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4950 51st Ln SE Unit F-201 Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	975	$1,650	$1.69	21d	1	0.32mi
5301 Ivy Hill Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1361	$2,495	$1.83	44d	1	0.35mi
5216 Ivy Hill Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1361	$2,595	$1.91	14d	1	0.37mi
5649 46th Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	3.0	1100	$2,300	$2.09	21d	1	0.47mi
6029 54th Ct SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,395	$1.54	14d	1	0.56mi
4625 45th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	975	$2,485	$2.55	14d	21	0.58mi
6031 Thornbury Pl SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,749	$1.60	14d	1	0.64mi
5207 65th Ave SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,695	$1.74	14d	1	0.72mi
4566 Beckonridge Loop SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,595	$1.57	44d	1	0.73mi
5916 Illinois Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	3.0	1580	$2,600	$1.65	44d	1	0.75mi
4533 Stonegate St SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1868	$2,695	$1.44	44d	1	0.76mi
4820 41st Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1716	$2,395	$1.40	14d	1	0.77mi
5407 Komachin Loop SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,500	$1.57	21d	1	0.79mi
6949 Stone St SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1712	$2,795	$1.63	21d	1	0.99mi
5905 Cherokee Loop SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1570	$2,500	$1.59	44d	1	1.01mi
6720 Alder Glen Dr SE Olympia, WA	4.0	2.0	1548	$3,600	$2.33	44d	1	1.03mi
5323 Rumac St SE Olympia, WA	2.0	1.5	1012	$2,095	$2.07	44d	1	1.06mi
5203 Rumac St SE Unit A Olympia, WA	2.0	1.5	1012	$2,195	$2.17	44d	1	1.08mi
3725 Wildspitz Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0–4.0	3.0	1774	$2,695	$1.52	44d	4	1.24mi
3301 College St SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,845	$2.05	21d	1	1.28mi
7317 Fair Oaks Rd SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,400	$1.92	44d	1	1.39mi
3622 57th Ln SE Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,999	$1.73	13d	1	1.42mi
5701 30th Ave SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	899	$1,503	$1.67	14d	2	1.44mi
3539 Landview Dr SE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1314	$2,895	$2.20	13d	19	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,361
• − Management: −$2,361
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $12,177
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,922
• After-tax cash flow: $10,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in average condition with some cosmetic repairs and maintenance needed. Upgrading the paint, flooring, windows, landscaping, and HVAC can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint is chipping in some areas, especially around the edges of the ceiling.
• Minor Flooring — Some areas of the hardwood flooring show wear.
• Minor Windows — Windows frames show some wear, but the glass appears functional.
• Minor Paint — Paint is chipping in some areas, especially around the edges of the ceiling.
• Minor Landscaping — Landscaping is maintained but could benefit from some updates and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint — Updating the paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and functionality.
• Both Windows — Replacing old windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value.
• Both Landscaping — Updating the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both HVAC — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint is chipping in some areas, especially around the edges of the ceiling.	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · Some areas of the hardwood flooring show wear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Windows · Windows frames show some wear, but the glass appears functional.	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint · Paint is chipping in some areas, especially around the edges of the ceiling.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Landscaping is maintained but could benefit from some updates and landscaping improvements.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$2,500–15,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint — Updating the paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Windows — Replacing old windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Updating the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lacey, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 41,656
• Household income: $89,002
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2195.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 7% Black 5% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.93%
• Current HPI: 361.0974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $129,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid