1260 Water Ter · Southold, NY 11971

$1,625,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,110 sqft · SingleFamily · 356 Days on market

Built 2004 0.83 ac lot $523/sqft · 17% below area Est $1965k · 17% under $25/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your own slice of paradise in the coveted Angel Shores beach community. This beautifully crafted home offers deeded bay beach access at the end of the road, and a spectacular backyard retreat—complete with vibrant gardens, an inviting inground pool, hot tub, and tranquil waterfall. Whether you're entertaining guests or enjoying a quiet evening at home, this outdoor space delivers the ultimate in North Fork living. Inside, the heart of the home is a spacious eat-in kitchen with center island that opens to a formal dining area, ideal for gatherings of any size. The main level also features an adjacent family room with a gas fireplace, a dedicated home office, and a living room—each thoughtfully designed with soaring ceilings and detailed crown moldings for a touch of elegance throughout. The home features four spacious bedrooms and two and a half baths, including a generously sized primary en-suite that serves as a peaceful retreat. Three additional large bedrooms provide comfortable accommodations for family or guests. Enjoy effortless indoor-outdoor living with a classic wrap-around front porch to relax and sip lemonade and a large back deck that flows into the lush, private backyard oasis. Whether you're seeking a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this exceptional property invites you to unpack and start enjoying all that the North Fork lifestyle has to offer.

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Tranquil waterfall
• Inground pool

Tags

• DEEDED BAY BEACH ACCESS
• BACKYARD RETREAT
• INGROUND POOL
• HOT TUB
• TRANQUIL WATERFALL
• SPACIOUS EAT-IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.62M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($60k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.62M).
• Recommended offer: $1.43M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 6.9% in Southold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $49k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $455k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 356 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.43M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $270k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $847k; list at $1.62M implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,430,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 356 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.25%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,965,150
• List price: $1,625,000
• Delta: -17.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1085 Gin Ln	0.66mi	4/4.0	3,400 (+9%)	11mo	$1,247,000	$367	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $56,384
• Equity at exit: $242,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $459,902
• Equity at exit: $140,500

Cash invested: $455,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11971

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $19,331 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,522
• Tax from tax record: −$1,023 /mo · $12,281/yr
• Insurance: −$677
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,060
• Net cashflow: $5,025

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,971

Max offer price $1,625,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $406,250
• Closing costs: $48,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
425 Cedar Point Dr E Southold, NY	5.0	3.5	3700	$20,000	$5.41	1d	1	0.20mi
580 Gin Ln Southold, NY	4.0	4.0	3585	$20,000	$5.58	24d	1	0.68mi
215 Northfield Ln Southold, NY	4.0	3.0	2300	$13,000	$5.65	18d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Active 1420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1420 chars)

   Welcome to your own slice of paradise in the coveted Angel Shores beach community. This beautifully crafted home offers deeded bay beach access at the end of the road, and a spectacular backyard retreat—complete with vibrant gardens, an inviting inground pool, hot tub, and tranquil waterfall. Whether you're entertaining guests or enjoying a quiet evening at home, this outdoor space delivers the ultimate in North Fork living. Inside, the heart of the home is a spacious eat-in kitchen with center island that opens to a formal dining area, ideal for gatherings of any size. The main level also features an adjacent family room with a gas fireplace, a dedicated home office, and a living room—each thoughtfully designed with soaring ceilings and detailed crown moldings for a touch of elegance throughout. The home features four spacious bedrooms and two and a half baths, including a generously sized primary en-suite that serves as a peaceful retreat. Three additional large bedrooms provide comfortable accommodations for family or guests. Enjoy effortless indoor-outdoor living with a classic wrap-around front porch to relax and sip lemonade and a large back deck that flows into the lush, private backyard oasis. Whether you're seeking a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this exceptional property invites you to unpack and start enjoying all that the North Fork lifestyle has to offer.

2. 2026-05-03
   historical 1420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1420 chars)

   Welcome to your own slice of paradise in the coveted Angel Shores beach community. This beautifully crafted home offers deeded bay beach access at the end of the road, and a spectacular backyard retreat—complete with vibrant gardens, an inviting inground pool, hot tub, and tranquil waterfall. Whether you're entertaining guests or enjoying a quiet evening at home, this outdoor space delivers the ultimate in North Fork living. Inside, the heart of the home is a spacious eat-in kitchen with center island that opens to a formal dining area, ideal for gatherings of any size. The main level also features an adjacent family room with a gas fireplace, a dedicated home office, and a living room—each thoughtfully designed with soaring ceilings and detailed crown moldings for a touch of elegance throughout. The home features four spacious bedrooms and two and a half baths, including a generously sized primary en-suite that serves as a peaceful retreat. Three additional large bedrooms provide comfortable accommodations for family or guests. Enjoy effortless indoor-outdoor living with a classic wrap-around front porch to relax and sip lemonade and a large back deck that flows into the lush, private backyard oasis. Whether you're seeking a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this exceptional property invites you to unpack and start enjoying all that the North Fork lifestyle has to offer.

3. 2026-03-17
   price $1,625,000 1420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1420 chars)

   Welcome to your own slice of paradise in the coveted Angel Shores beach community. This beautifully crafted home offers deeded bay beach access at the end of the road, and a spectacular backyard retreat—complete with vibrant gardens, an inviting inground pool, hot tub, and tranquil waterfall. Whether you're entertaining guests or enjoying a quiet evening at home, this outdoor space delivers the ultimate in North Fork living. Inside, the heart of the home is a spacious eat-in kitchen with center island that opens to a formal dining area, ideal for gatherings of any size. The main level also features an adjacent family room with a gas fireplace, a dedicated home office, and a living room—each thoughtfully designed with soaring ceilings and detailed crown moldings for a touch of elegance throughout. The home features four spacious bedrooms and two and a half baths, including a generously sized primary en-suite that serves as a peaceful retreat. Three additional large bedrooms provide comfortable accommodations for family or guests. Enjoy effortless indoor-outdoor living with a classic wrap-around front porch to relax and sip lemonade and a large back deck that flows into the lush, private backyard oasis. Whether you're seeking a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this exceptional property invites you to unpack and start enjoying all that the North Fork lifestyle has to offer.

4. 2025-10-06
   price $1,675,000 1420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1420 chars)

   Welcome to your own slice of paradise in the coveted Angel Shores beach community. This beautifully crafted home offers deeded bay beach access at the end of the road, and a spectacular backyard retreat—complete with vibrant gardens, an inviting inground pool, hot tub, and tranquil waterfall. Whether you're entertaining guests or enjoying a quiet evening at home, this outdoor space delivers the ultimate in North Fork living. Inside, the heart of the home is a spacious eat-in kitchen with center island that opens to a formal dining area, ideal for gatherings of any size. The main level also features an adjacent family room with a gas fireplace, a dedicated home office, and a living room—each thoughtfully designed with soaring ceilings and detailed crown moldings for a touch of elegance throughout. The home features four spacious bedrooms and two and a half baths, including a generously sized primary en-suite that serves as a peaceful retreat. Three additional large bedrooms provide comfortable accommodations for family or guests. Enjoy effortless indoor-outdoor living with a classic wrap-around front porch to relax and sip lemonade and a large back deck that flows into the lush, private backyard oasis. Whether you're seeking a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this exceptional property invites you to unpack and start enjoying all that the North Fork lifestyle has to offer.

5. 2025-07-29
   price $1,795,000 1420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1420 chars)

   Welcome to your own slice of paradise in the coveted Angel Shores beach community. This beautifully crafted home offers deeded bay beach access at the end of the road, and a spectacular backyard retreat—complete with vibrant gardens, an inviting inground pool, hot tub, and tranquil waterfall. Whether you're entertaining guests or enjoying a quiet evening at home, this outdoor space delivers the ultimate in North Fork living. Inside, the heart of the home is a spacious eat-in kitchen with center island that opens to a formal dining area, ideal for gatherings of any size. The main level also features an adjacent family room with a gas fireplace, a dedicated home office, and a living room—each thoughtfully designed with soaring ceilings and detailed crown moldings for a touch of elegance throughout. The home features four spacious bedrooms and two and a half baths, including a generously sized primary en-suite that serves as a peaceful retreat. Three additional large bedrooms provide comfortable accommodations for family or guests. Enjoy effortless indoor-outdoor living with a classic wrap-around front porch to relax and sip lemonade and a large back deck that flows into the lush, private backyard oasis. Whether you're seeking a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this exceptional property invites you to unpack and start enjoying all that the North Fork lifestyle has to offer.

6. 2025-05-29
   listed $1,895,000 Active 1420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1420 chars)

   Welcome to your own slice of paradise in the coveted Angel Shores beach community. This beautifully crafted home offers deeded bay beach access at the end of the road, and a spectacular backyard retreat—complete with vibrant gardens, an inviting inground pool, hot tub, and tranquil waterfall. Whether you're entertaining guests or enjoying a quiet evening at home, this outdoor space delivers the ultimate in North Fork living. Inside, the heart of the home is a spacious eat-in kitchen with center island that opens to a formal dining area, ideal for gatherings of any size. The main level also features an adjacent family room with a gas fireplace, a dedicated home office, and a living room—each thoughtfully designed with soaring ceilings and detailed crown moldings for a touch of elegance throughout. The home features four spacious bedrooms and two and a half baths, including a generously sized primary en-suite that serves as a peaceful retreat. Three additional large bedrooms provide comfortable accommodations for family or guests. Enjoy effortless indoor-outdoor living with a classic wrap-around front porch to relax and sip lemonade and a large back deck that flows into the lush, private backyard oasis. Whether you're seeking a year-round residence or a seasonal escape, this exceptional property invites you to unpack and start enjoying all that the North Fork lifestyle has to offer.

7. 2014-04-25
   soldstatus $847,000
8. 2004-01-07
   soldstatus $700,000
9. 2000-09-19
   soldstatus $128,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,281 · $1,023/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,872 · $1,656/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,591/yr (+$633/mo · 61.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $231,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$91,025
• − Property taxes: −$12,281
• − Insurance: −$8,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,558
• − Management: −$18,558
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$47,273
• Taxable income: $35,856
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,605
• After-tax cash flow: $51,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• City population: 6,507
• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.14%
• Current HPI: 396.5481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1169.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $1,625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $1,675,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $1,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-29 Listed $1,895,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $847,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $700,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,281 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.