Cedar Canyon 2020 - BOYL Plan · Missoula, MT 59808

$192,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · Manufactured · 121 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 120 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $192,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service
• Home design: Single-family plan (Cedar Canyon 2020 - BOYL); Active new-construction plan
• Construction: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Plan: Cedar Canyon 2020 - BOYL

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $193k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $193k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 1.7% in Missoula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#17 in MT, #2,351 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Missoula H S (urban): math 31% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #53 of 116 in MT (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 773 units permitted in Missoula County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Missoula County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $169,752 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.71%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,849
• Equity at exit: $28,762

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $25,854
• Equity at exit: $16,678

Cash invested: $54,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59808

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,241 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,012
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$241 /mo · $2,894/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,687

Max offer price $192,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,225
• Closing costs: $5,787
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3735 W Broadway St Missoula, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,600	$2.48	43d	6	1.03mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $192,900 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $192,900 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $192,900 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $192,900 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $192,900 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $192,900 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $192,900 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $192,900 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $192,900 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $192,900 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $192,900 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $192,900 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $192,900 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $192,900 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $192,900 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $192,900 Active 102 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $192,900 Active 101 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,894
• − Insurance: −$964
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,151
• − Management: −$2,151
• − Depreciation: −$5,612
• Taxable income: $2,310
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$554
• After-tax cash flow: $4,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Missoula H S
• NCES district ID: 3018540
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,814
• Composite: 34.87/100
• National rank: #5087
• State rank: #53 of 116 in MT

Livability — Missoula

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #2351

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment C- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Missoula County · 100,878 people
• City population: 100,878
• Metro: Missoula, MT
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $80,239
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1022.0

Population outlook (Missoula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,248 people
• By 2030: 133,571 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 144,833 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 156,753 · +23.2%
• By 2075: 189,373 · +48.8%
• By 2100: 217,637 · +71.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Missoula

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.4) · D 59.0% · R 37.5% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.3pp toward R · 2008: 26.7pp · 2024: 21.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.4 2020: D+23.6 2016: D+15.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+26.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.87%
• Current HPI: 269.9288
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.35%
• Metro: Missoula, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B