8815 226th St E Lot 14 · Graham, WA 98338

$79,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1986 ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into easy living at Shadow Pines. This refreshed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home blends comfort, function, and peace of mind with 924 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed space. The open layout creates a natural flow between the living room, dining area, and spacious kitchen—perfect for everyday living or casual gatherings. A separate laundry area keeps things tidy and convenient. With brand-new siding and a 30-year single ply TPO roof, the big-ticket updates are already done. Relax outdoors on the covered deck/patio, or take advantage of the backyard storage shed for hobbies, tools, or seasonal items. Shadow Pines is known for its friendly atmosphere and community perks, including a sports c

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1986
• Listed 72 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated living area 924 square feet; Structure type: Manufactured house; Style code: Manuf-Single Wide; Power production type: Electric; Bus line nearby
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Park approved for sale; Shadow Pines park; Approximately 50 homes in the park; Pets allowed: cats and dogs; Common area and recreational area in park; Land lease: $790

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking; 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric power; Electric water heater; Community water (see remarks); TPU power company; Sewer: N/A; Portable shed for storage
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One level; Good condition; Has view; AMERICAN MANOR model
• Construction: Wood construction; Manufactured after 6/15/1976; Mobile home remains; Roof: see remarks
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Wood products; Patio/porch/deck; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Engineered hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 1 shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Water heater; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.0% vs local median 3.6% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#373 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Bethel School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #103 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $74,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.26%
• DSCR: 4.93
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $529,452
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21412 89th Avenue Ct E #3	0.72mi	3/1.0	924 (0%)	20mo	$82,600	$89	45
8106 224th St E	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+14%)	21mo	$605,000	$573	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.14×
• Total profit: $91,676
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.80×
• Total profit: $216,806
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98338

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,666 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $383/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $1,627

Break-even live

Break-even rent $607

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    price $79,000
16. 2026-04-07
    listed $89,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $383 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $774 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$391/yr (+$33/mo · 102.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$383
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,559
• − Management: −$2,559
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $19,370
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,649
• After-tax cash flow: $14,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethel School District
• NCES district ID: 5300480
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,872
• Composite: 48.66/100
• National rank: #4568
• State rank: #103 of 291 in WA

Livability — Graham

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #373
• US rank: #14219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graham, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 32,687
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 32,687
• Household income: $114,819
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 236.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 3% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -501.28%
• Current HPI: 304.4241
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.32%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $79,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Listed $89,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $383 · +25.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.