1111 E Limberlost Dr #253 · Tucson, AZ 85719

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 138 Days on market

Built 1992 Good condition $70/sqft · 29% above area Est $50k · 29% over $540/mo HOA · 36% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must see this economical recently renovated 3 bedroom, 2 bath home! Community has a club house, swimming pool and more! This will not last long!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1992
• Listed 138 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.22%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,500
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: 28.71%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $274
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $8,917
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85719

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$540
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,252

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4545 N Via Entrada Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	900	$2,041	$2.27	1d	30	0.33mi
880 E Peppergrass Ln Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	872	$1,495	$1.71	20d	1	0.35mi
1402 E Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	893	$1,850	$2.07	23d	1	0.44mi
1200 E River Rd Unit K147 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	991	$1,625	$1.64	43d	1	0.44mi
1200 E River Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	986	$1,350	$1.37	3d	1	0.45mi
4225 N 1st Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	678	$1,294	$1.91	2d	40	0.49mi
1200 E River Rd Unit B27 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	991	$2,999	$3.03	23d	1	0.49mi
1337 E Allen Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	803	$995	$1.24	3d	5	0.57mi
1341 E Allen Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	805	$925	$1.15	3d	1	0.57mi
1307 E Allen Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,295	$1.36	43d	1	0.61mi
1301 E Allen Rd Unit B Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,295	$1.36	43d	1	0.63mi
402 E Limberlost Dr Unit 207 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	676	$925	$1.37	23d	1	0.67mi
402 E Limberlost Dr Unit 202 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	676	$1,025	$1.52	43d	1	0.69mi
402 E Limberlost Dr Apt 108 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	676	$895	$1.32	3d	1	0.69mi
349 E Calle Arizona Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,075	$1.40	43d	1	0.74mi
2024 E River Rd #202 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,425	$2.20	3d	1	0.75mi
3699 N Mountain Ave Unit 13 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	14d	1	0.75mi
2010 E River Rd #202 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1023	$1,650	$1.61	43d	1	0.75mi
3733 N Tyndall Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	884	$1,300	$1.47	43d	1	0.76mi
3700 N 1st Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	522	$1,150	$2.20	2d	27	0.76mi
2018 E River Rd #201 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	720	$1,695	$2.35	23d	1	0.77mi
2026 E River Rd #204 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	720	$1,750	$2.43	3d	1	0.77mi
2000 E River Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	969	$1,261	$1.30	43d	1	0.79mi
2000 E River Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	969	$1,372	$1.42	3d	1	0.79mi
2028 E River Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1023	$1,800	$1.76	43d	1	0.80mi
2032 E River Rd #200 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1074	$2,500	$2.33	1d	1	0.82mi
1736 E Allen Rd Unit B Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	704	$845	$1.20	43d	1	0.82mi
269 E Calle Arizona Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	3d	1	0.85mi
272 E Calle Arizona Unit 2101 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	775	$1,199	$1.55	43d	1	0.86mi
3765 N Campbell Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,264	$1.49	43d	7	0.86mi
1625 E Prince Rd Unit 92 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	716	$950	$1.33	3d	1	0.89mi
1625 E Prince Rd Unit 108 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	716	$999	$1.40	3d	1	0.89mi
2000 E Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	831	$1,299	$1.56	2d	77	0.91mi
1625 E Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0–1.5	645	$1,075	$1.67	3d	29	0.91mi
1625 E Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	716	$974	$1.36	43d	2	0.91mi
446 E Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	3d	2	0.92mi
3700 N Campbell Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	643	$1,309	$2.04	1d	41	0.99mi
2400 E River Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$1,800	$1.67	3d	1	1.01mi
1730 E Prince Rd Unit 4 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	550	$1,000	$1.82	3d	1	1.04mi
5025 N 1st Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	640	$1,200	$1.88	43d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $540 · $6,480/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-01-30
    listed $69,000 Active 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Must see this economical recently renovated 3 bedroom, 2 bath home! Community has a club house, swimming pool and more! This will not last long!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − HOA: −$6,480
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $1,867
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$448
• After-tax cash flow: $1,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This recently renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is move-in ready with new flooring, appliances, and paint. It offers a good return on investment with its curb appeal and updated interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value
• Both New flooring in living areas — Enhances aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both New flooring in living areas — Enhances aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 51,833
• Household income: $42,241
• Rent vs Own: 72.1% rent · 27.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4906.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 13% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -545.74%
• Current HPI: 279.865
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Listed $69,000 MLSSAZ