1328 W Sugar Grove Rd · Victory, MI 49454

$149,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1920 2.00 ac lot $115/sqft · 62% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This magnificent 4 bedroom 2 bath home with a detached garage on 2 acres has unlimited potential. It's located about halfway between Manistee and Ludington and a mile away from West Shore Community College. It's presently in the remodeling phase so it may be finished to your taste. It has new windows, forced air furnace as well as a wood stove in combination. The home has great framework and foundation with newly refinished electrical system. The yard is spacious and open for entertainment and wildlife viewing. This property is perfect to for a family to finish and enjoy for generations.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mason County Central Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #345 of 540 in MI (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (97 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $108k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,002 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.94%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $410,154
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -60.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-32,852
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-39,773
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49454

• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $129,177

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 672-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on marketlisting id $149,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 142 DOM
17. 2026-01-08
    listed $160,000 Active 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    This magnificent 4 bedroom 2 bath home with a detached garage on 2 acres has unlimited potential. It's located about halfway between Manistee and Ludington and a mile away from West Shore Community College. It's presently in the remodeling phase so it may be finished to your taste. It has new windows, forced air furnace as well as a wood stove in combination. The home has great framework and foundation with newly refinished electrical system. The yard is spacious and open for entertainment and wildlife viewing. This property is perfect to for a family to finish and enjoy for generations.

18. 2026-01-08
    listed $160,000 Active 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    This magnificent 4 bedroom 2 bath home with a detached garage on 2 acres has unlimited potential. It's located about halfway between Manistee and Ludington and a mile away from West Shore Community College. It's presently in the remodeling phase so it may be finished to your taste. It has new windows, forced air furnace as well as a wood stove in combination. The home has great framework and foundation with newly refinished electrical system. The yard is spacious and open for entertainment and wildlife viewing. This property is perfect to for a family to finish and enjoy for generations.

19. 2026-01-08
    listed $160,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    This magnificent 4 bedroom 2 bath home with a detached garage on 2 acres has unlimited potential. It's located about halfway between Manistee and Ludington and a mile away from West Shore Community College. It's presently in the remodeling phase so it may be finished to your taste. It has new windows, forced air furnace as well as a wood stove in combination. The home has great framework and foundation with newly refinished electrical system. The yard is spacious and open for entertainment and wildlife viewing. This property is perfect to for a family to finish and enjoy for generations.

20. 2026-01-08
    historical

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    This magnificent 4 bedroom 2 bath home with a detached garage on 2 acres has unlimited potential. It's located about halfway between Manistee and Ludington and a mile away from West Shore Community College. It's presently in the remodeling phase so it may be finished to your taste. It has new windows, forced air furnace as well as a wood stove in combination. The home has great framework and foundation with newly refinished electrical system. The yard is spacious and open for entertainment and wildlife viewing. This property is perfect to for a family to finish and enjoy for generations.

21. 2025-12-12
    listed $160,000 Active
22. 2025-12-12
    listed $160,000 Active
23. 2023-01-12
    soldstatus $108,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,085
• − Management: −$1,085
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$4,270
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,025
• After-tax cash flow: $-619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mason County Central Schools
• NCES district ID: 2623130
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,834
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7120
• State rank: #345 of 540 in MI

Livability — Victory

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,905

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,828 people
• By 2030: 28,407 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 27,183 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 26,171 · -9.2%
• By 2075: 24,057 · -16.5%
• By 2100: 20,240 · -29.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.4) · D 38.6% · R 60.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.8pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -21.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.4 2020: R+19.7 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.28%
• Current HPI: 195.7187
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+48.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $160,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-08 Listed $160,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $160,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $160,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $160,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records