2730 W Chestnut St · Louisville, KY 40211

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 1900 2,760 sqft lot Est $126k · 40% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2,760 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Utilities: Natural gas fuel
• Home design: Single-family residence; Camelback architectural style; Two stories; Built in 1900
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: No fencing; Lot dimensions approximately 22.5 x 120

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Two bedrooms on the first floor; One bedroom on the second floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom located on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Five closets; No basement; Eat-in kitchen; Family room on the first floor
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor; First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $503 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,322/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($32k/yr) (locally 1483% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.51%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3015 River Park Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,560 (+4%)	12mo	$50,000	$32	70
2529 W Jefferson St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-0%)	11mo	$28,500	$19	67
218 S 25th St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,523 (+2%)	10mo	$130,000	$85	62
865 S 26th St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,371 (-9%)	3mo	$51,999	$38	58
2425 Elliott Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-12%)	5mo	$145,000	$109	57
114 S 33rd St	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,453 (-3%)	4mo	$110,000	$76	56
633 S 36th St	0.73mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,478 (-2%)	7mo	$150,000	$101	51
2616 Duncan St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-4%)	7mo	$48,000	$33	48
2508 W Main St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,327 (-12%)	11mo	$112,000	$84	45
2223 Cedar St	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,564 (+4%)	12mo	$190,000	$121	45
2537 Crop St	0.63mi	2/— (-1)	1,336 (-11%)	8mo	$16,500	$12	40
2532 Garland Ave	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,720 (+15%)	7mo	$159,000	$92	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $22,423
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $71,686
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40211

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,322 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $614/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $686

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
430 S 24th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1288	$1,400	$1.09	23d	1	0.35mi
2319 W Muhammad Ali Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1644	$1,300	$0.79	16d	1	0.40mi
2508 W Main St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1327	$1,500	$1.13	23d	1	0.58mi
2634 Garland Ave Unit B Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$895	$0.78	20d	1	0.58mi
2634 Garland Ave Unit A Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$940	$0.82	23d	1	0.58mi
2529 W Main St #2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,200	$0.85	23d	1	0.60mi
820 Hazel St Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1872	$1,395	$0.75	2d	1	0.62mi
737 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1356	$1,595	$1.18	23d	1	0.63mi
2416 Garland Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,600	$1.37	23d	1	0.64mi
2711 W Kentucky St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1155	$1,100	$0.95	23d	1	0.64mi
848 S 23rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,450	$1.38	23d	1	0.64mi
814 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	3d	1	0.70mi
212 N 25th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$895	$0.81	23d	1	0.72mi
2821 Greenwood Ave #1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1113	$1,300	$1.17	23d	1	0.74mi
2825 Greenwood Ave #2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1300	$995	$0.77	23d	1	0.75mi
2825 Greenwood Ave #4 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,250	$0.87	23d	1	0.75mi
2708 Greenwood Ave Apt 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	23d	1	0.77mi
803 S 35th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1486	$1,350	$0.91	23d	1	0.78mi
2912 Greenwood Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,150	$0.84	16d	1	0.79mi
1810 Magazine St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1248	$1,450	$1.16	10d	1	0.85mi
652 S 37th St #9 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,095	$1.02	23d	1	0.90mi
1847 W Kentucky St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1368	$895	$0.65	3d	1	0.91mi
120 N 20th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	0.91mi
627 S 38th St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,349	$1.04	16d	1	0.95mi
2706 Hale Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	23d	1	0.96mi
1115 S 32nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1393	$1,275	$0.92	21d	1	0.99mi
1115 S 32nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1393	$1,275	$0.92	23d	1	0.99mi
3819 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,090	$0.98	20d	1	1.00mi
353 N 27th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	23d	1	1.04mi
628 S 39th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1448	$1,220	$0.84	16d	1	1.06mi
823 S 38th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	3d	1	1.06mi
1723 W Kentucky St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	23d	1	1.06mi
3922 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1800	$1,195	$0.66	11d	1	1.11mi
409 N 20th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	3d	1	1.11mi
2913 Dumesnil St Apt 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1112	$740	$0.67	10d	1	1.13mi
3514 Grand Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1450	$1,295	$0.89	21d	1	1.14mi
644 S 40th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	2d	1	1.17mi
722 S 40th St Unit NA Louisville, KY	4.0	2.5	1556	$1,700	$1.09	3d	1	1.18mi
1339 S 28th St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,175	$1.04	20d	1	1.23mi
1705 1/2 Hale Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,400	$1.11	10d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $75,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $614 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $645 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$31/yr (+$3/mo · 5.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$614
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,270
• − Management: −$1,270
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,161
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,239
• After-tax cash flow: $4,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 20,407
• Household income: $31,749
• Rent vs Own: 58.6% rent · 41.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1483.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.22%
• Current HPI: 176.337
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.87%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-8.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $75,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-08-31 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2007-05-31 Listed $12,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2000-08-22 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2000-02-22 Listed $82,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $614 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.