834 E 28th St · Erie, PA 16504

$50,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1926 2,548 sqft lot $38/sqft · 49% below area Est $98k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great property with plenty of potential and ready for your personal touch! This home is perfect for those eager to apply some TLC and creative vision to make it truly shine. Ideal for a buyer looking to craft their dream space to create many lasting memories! Don’t miss this chance to transform a gem into your masterpiece!

Key facts

• 2,548 sq ft lot
• Built 1926
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story residence; Resale property; Composition roof; Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Small lot (approx. 0.0585 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air gas heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $39k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price; built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.27%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,703
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -48.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
749 E 32nd St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,270 (-4%)	1mo	$181,000	$143	80
953 E 33rd St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,333 (+1%)	3mo	$99,500	$75	74
2607 Jackson Ave	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,478 (+12%)	3mo	$59,000	$40	73
1038 E 24th St	0.38mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,352 (+2%)	2mo	$139,900	$103	72
1033 E 29 St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	1mo	$180,000	$146	70
1021 E 31st St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-11%)	2mo	$130,900	$111	64
1060 E 24th St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-9%)	3mo	$35,000	$29	63
2925 Pennsylvania Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,157 (-12%)	1mo	$133,000	$115	61
909 E 37th St	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,285 (-3%)	2mo	$142,000	$111	55
539 E 23rd St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,139 (-14%)	1mo	$28,000	$25	54
1128 E 35th St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,160 (-12%)	0mo	$164,900	$142	52
1246 E 28th St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-11%)	0mo	$139,900	$119	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $15,230
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $43,571
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16504

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,303/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $601

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	43d	1	0.49mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	43d	1	1.19mi
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	43d	1	1.32mi
223 E 9th St Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,300	$0.83	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 330-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   price $50,000 330-char remark
3. 2026-05-06
   listed $40,000 Active 330-char remark
4. 1998-09-22
   soldstatus $39,190
5. 1983-06-13
   soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,303 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,303 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$2,303
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,020
• − Management: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $3,907
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$938
• After-tax cash flow: $3,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,632

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Subsaharan African 2% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.54%
• Current HPI: 260.1053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $50,000 West Penn MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $40,000 West Penn MLS
• 1998-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $39,190 Public Records
• 1983-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,303 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.