46 Rolling Way · Thomasville, GA 31757

$223,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2006 0.50 ac lot $142/sqft · 31% below area Est $324k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Four-bedroom, two-bath home conveniently located right off Dillon Road in a quiet neighborhood. Attached two-car carport, covered porch, and spacious deck in the rear of the home for entertaining. Fully-applianced spacious galley-style kitchen, walk-in laundry , and large master suite. Well priced for a quick sale. Call today.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Attached carport
• Galley-style kitchen

Tags

• ATTACHED CARPORT
• COVERED PORCH
• SPACIOUS DECK
• GALLEY-STYLE KITCHEN
• WALK-IN LAUNDRY
• LARGE MASTER SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-179 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.7% in Thomasville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#77 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, commute F.
• Thomas County (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #97 of 174 in GA (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Thomas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thomas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $223k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,811 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.43%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,365
• List price: $223,000
• Delta: -31.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Lost Creek Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,647 (+5%)	0mo	$322,000	$196	73
273 Brookwood Chase	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,352 (-14%)	3mo	$239,000	$177	66
204 Stirrup Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (+4%)	11mo	$309,000	$189	58
113 Lost Creek Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,735 (+11%)	6mo	$275,000	$159	57
112 Spur Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,754 (+12%)	13mo	$375,000	$214	52
127 Lost Creek Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (+14%)	7mo	$400,000	$224	46
207 Stirrup Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (+12%)	12mo	$354,000	$201	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-47,569
• Equity at exit: $33,250

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-56,303
• Equity at exit: $19,281

Cash invested: $62,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31757

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,558 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,766/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,784

Max offer price $191,448

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-52	-5% $-115	+0% $-179	+5% $-242	+10% $-305
Rent	-10% $-302	-5% $-240	+0% $-179	+5% $-117	+10% $-56
Rate	-1.0pp $-66	-0.5pp $-122	base $-179	+0.5pp $-236	+1.0pp $-295

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,750
• Closing costs: $6,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $223,000 Pending 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $223,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $223,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $223,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $223,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $223,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $223,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $223,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $223,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $223,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $223,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $223,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $223,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    price $223,000 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Four-bedroom, two-bath home conveniently located right off Dillon Road in a quiet neighborhood. Attached two-car carport, covered porch, and spacious deck in the rear of the home for entertaining. Fully-applianced spacious galley-style kitchen, walk-in laundry , and large master suite. Well priced for a quick sale. Call today.

15. 2026-04-01
    listed $234,950 Active 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Four-bedroom, two-bath home conveniently located right off Dillon Road in a quiet neighborhood. Attached two-car carport, covered porch, and spacious deck in the rear of the home for entertaining. Fully-applianced spacious galley-style kitchen, walk-in laundry , and large master suite. Well priced for a quick sale. Call today.

16. 2009-01-01
    soldstatus $93,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,766 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,052 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$286/yr (+$24/mo · 16.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,491
• − Property taxes: −$1,766
• − Insurance: −$1,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,496
• − Management: −$1,496
• − Depreciation: −$6,487
• Taxable loss: −$6,154
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,477
• After-tax cash flow: $-666/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thomas County
• NCES district ID: 1304890
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,341
• Composite: 24.95/100
• National rank: #7565
• State rank: #97 of 174 in GA

Livability — Thomasville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #6678

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 22,962
• Population (ZIP): 11,787

Population outlook (Thomas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,303 people
• By 2030: 45,052 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 44,034 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 42,310 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 37,569 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 30,676 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thomas

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+21.8 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.49%
• Current HPI: 215.5408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+139.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $223,000 TABRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $234,950 TABRMLS
• 2009-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,766 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.