5202 Flax Bourton St · Atascocita, TX 77346

$260,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,205 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1998 5,876 sqft lot $118/sqft · at area comps Est $261k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a large corner lot in Atascocita Park, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a spacious layout, functional design, & plenty of potential. Just off the entry, a formal dining room or flex space works well as a home office, sitting area, or playroom. The main living room features a fireplace & opens to the kitchen and breakfast nook, creating an easy flow for everyday living. The primary suite is conveniently located on the first floor, offering privacy from the rest of the home. Upstairs, you’ll find a game room along with three additional bedrooms, giving everyone room to spread out. Step outside to enjoy the backyard patio & outdoor space, with room to relax, entertain, or make future improvements. A water softener is already in place, adding everyday value. With its corner lot location, versatile floor plan, & opportunity to personalize, this home is a strong option for buyers looking for space, function, & long-term value. Call today for an exclusive tour.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Flex space
• Primary suite

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FLEX SPACE
• MAIN LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-237 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $260k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,176 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,492
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -0.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5202 Flax Bourton St	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,205 (0%)	1mo	$260,000	$118	99
19006 Lakeshire St	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,209 (+0%)	4mo	$315,000	$143	75
5531 Flax Bourton St	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,318 (+5%)	1mo	$285,000	$123	73
5018 Woodland Meadows Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,223 (+1%)	1mo	$239,900	$108	69
19311 Forest Fern Ct	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,276 (+3%)	1mo	$299,900	$132	63
18622 Timbers Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,992 (-10%)	0mo	$270,000	$136	63
4954 Winding Timbers Cir	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,319 (+5%)	0mo	$277,600	$120	62
18803 Timber Spring Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,030 (-8%)	3mo	$299,999	$148	60
5527 Enchanted Timbers Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,348 (+6%)	2mo	$279,900	$119	56
5018 Steel Meadows Ln	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,975 (-10%)	1mo	$224,900	$114	51
12223 English Brook Cir	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,397 (+9%)	1mo	$239,500	$100	50
5019 Woodland Meadows Ln	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,506 (+14%)	2mo	$245,000	$98	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-40,342
• Equity at exit: $63,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-56,880
• Equity at exit: $66,994

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,246 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$497 /mo · $5,968/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,546

Max offer price $218,176

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-90	-5% $-163	+0% $-237	+5% $-310	+10% $-384
Rent	-10% $-414	-5% $-325	+0% $-237	+5% $-148	+10% $-59
Rate	-1.0pp $-106	-0.5pp $-171	base $-237	+0.5pp $-304	+1.0pp $-373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5231 Flax Bourton St Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,856	$1.23	2d	1	0.09mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	44d	1	0.13mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	12d	1	0.66mi
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	44d	1	0.74mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	6d	1	0.78mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,236	$0.96	4d	1	0.96mi
18018 Heron Forest Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,939	$1.08	25d	1	1.01mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	44d	1	1.12mi
17834 Yellow Birch Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,646	$1.07	44d	1	1.18mi
19902 Burle Oak Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1532	$1,699	$1.11	44d	1	1.28mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	25d	1	1.29mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,336	$1.08	6d	1	1.34mi
18810 Summer Anne Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,376	$0.79	44d	1	1.39mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	6d	1	1.42mi
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 1010-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

   Situated on a large corner lot in Atascocita Park, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a spacious layout, functional design, & plenty of potential. Just off the entry, a formal dining room or flex space works well as a home office, sitting area, or playroom. The main living room features a fireplace & opens to the kitchen and breakfast nook, creating an easy flow for everyday living. The primary suite is conveniently located on the first floor, offering privacy from the rest of the home. Upstairs, you’ll find a game room along with three additional bedrooms, giving everyone room to spread out. Step outside to enjoy the backyard patio & outdoor space, with room to relax, entertain, or make future improvements. A water softener is already in place, adding everyday value. With its corner lot location, versatile floor plan, & opportunity to personalize, this home is a strong option for buyers looking for space, function, & long-term value. Call today for an exclusive tour.

2. 2026-05-04
   price $260,000 1010-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

   Situated on a large corner lot in Atascocita Park, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a spacious layout, functional design, & plenty of potential. Just off the entry, a formal dining room or flex space works well as a home office, sitting area, or playroom. The main living room features a fireplace & opens to the kitchen and breakfast nook, creating an easy flow for everyday living. The primary suite is conveniently located on the first floor, offering privacy from the rest of the home. Upstairs, you’ll find a game room along with three additional bedrooms, giving everyone room to spread out. Step outside to enjoy the backyard patio & outdoor space, with room to relax, entertain, or make future improvements. A water softener is already in place, adding everyday value. With its corner lot location, versatile floor plan, & opportunity to personalize, this home is a strong option for buyers looking for space, function, & long-term value. Call today for an exclusive tour.

3. 2026-04-25
   status Active 1010-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

   Situated on a large corner lot in Atascocita Park, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a spacious layout, functional design, & plenty of potential. Just off the entry, a formal dining room or flex space works well as a home office, sitting area, or playroom. The main living room features a fireplace & opens to the kitchen and breakfast nook, creating an easy flow for everyday living. The primary suite is conveniently located on the first floor, offering privacy from the rest of the home. Upstairs, you’ll find a game room along with three additional bedrooms, giving everyone room to spread out. Step outside to enjoy the backyard patio & outdoor space, with room to relax, entertain, or make future improvements. A water softener is already in place, adding everyday value. With its corner lot location, versatile floor plan, & opportunity to personalize, this home is a strong option for buyers looking for space, function, & long-term value. Call today for an exclusive tour.

4. 2026-04-14
   status Pending 1010-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

   Situated on a large corner lot in Atascocita Park, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a spacious layout, functional design, & plenty of potential. Just off the entry, a formal dining room or flex space works well as a home office, sitting area, or playroom. The main living room features a fireplace & opens to the kitchen and breakfast nook, creating an easy flow for everyday living. The primary suite is conveniently located on the first floor, offering privacy from the rest of the home. Upstairs, you’ll find a game room along with three additional bedrooms, giving everyone room to spread out. Step outside to enjoy the backyard patio & outdoor space, with room to relax, entertain, or make future improvements. A water softener is already in place, adding everyday value. With its corner lot location, versatile floor plan, & opportunity to personalize, this home is a strong option for buyers looking for space, function, & long-term value. Call today for an exclusive tour.

5. 2026-03-26
   listed $275,000 Active 1010-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

   Situated on a large corner lot in Atascocita Park, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a spacious layout, functional design, & plenty of potential. Just off the entry, a formal dining room or flex space works well as a home office, sitting area, or playroom. The main living room features a fireplace & opens to the kitchen and breakfast nook, creating an easy flow for everyday living. The primary suite is conveniently located on the first floor, offering privacy from the rest of the home. Upstairs, you’ll find a game room along with three additional bedrooms, giving everyone room to spread out. Step outside to enjoy the backyard patio & outdoor space, with room to relax, entertain, or make future improvements. A water softener is already in place, adding everyday value. With its corner lot location, versatile floor plan, & opportunity to personalize, this home is a strong option for buyers looking for space, function, & long-term value. Call today for an exclusive tour.

6. 2026-03-20
   historical
7. 2026-03-12
   listed $299,999 Active
8. 2018-10-16
   soldstatus
9. 2018-10-12
   soldstatus Sold
10. 2018-09-23
    status Pending
11. 2018-09-16
    status Option Pending
12. 2018-09-07
    price $186,000
13. 2018-08-20
    price $189,900
14. 2018-08-08
    listed $195,000 Active
15. 2014-05-22
    soldstatus
16. 2014-05-20
    soldstatus Sold
17. 2014-04-26
    status Pending, Continue to Show
18. 2014-04-12
    status Option Pending
19. 2014-04-08
    listed $138,000 Active
20. 2010-06-23
    soldstatus
21. 2010-06-18
    soldstatus
22. 2010-05-11
    historical
23. 2010-04-15
    listed $129,000
24. 2002-01-09
    soldstatus
25. 1999-07-01
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,968 · $497/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,968 · $497/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$5,968
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,156
• − Management: −$2,156
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$7,260
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,742
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+147.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $299,999 HARMLS
• 2018-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-09-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-09-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-09-07 Price Changed $186,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-20 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2018-08-08 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2014-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-04-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-08 Listed $138,000 HARMLS
• 2010-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-06-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-04-15 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2002-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,968 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.