14512 Northeast Pl · Chantilly, VA 20151

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · SingleFamily · 84 Days on market

Built 2002 Fair condition 2,170 sqft lot $107/sqft · 36% above area Est $88k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This impeccably maintained three-bedroom, two-bathroom residence is situated in the highly sought-after community of Meadows of Chantilly. The home features a thoughtfully designed kitchen, enhanced by newly updated light fixtures and a modern microwave. The spacious primary suite offers a luxurious en-suite bathroom, complete with a deep soaking tub that serves as a serene retreat. Residents will appreciate the charm of this established community, as well as its convenient access to Dulles Airport, major transportation routes, and a diverse array of shops and restaurants.

Key facts

• 2,170 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2002

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.4% vs local median 3.0% in Chantilly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#66 in VA, #2,106 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.38%
• DSCR: 3.55
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,272
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 35.94%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $83,960
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.23×
• Total profit: $209,311
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20151

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $1,607

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4399 Peach Lily Ln Chantilly, VA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,895	$2.41	7d	1	0.67mi
3840 Lightfoot St Chantilly, VA	3.0	2.0	1233	$2,625	$2.13	43d	2	1.22mi
3810 Lightfoot St Chantilly, VA	2.0	2.0	966	$2,484	$2.57	24d	2	1.31mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-04-05
    price $120,000 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    This impeccably maintained three-bedroom, two-bathroom residence is situated in the highly sought-after community of Meadows of Chantilly. The home features a thoughtfully designed kitchen, enhanced by newly updated light fixtures and a modern microwave. The spacious primary suite offers a luxurious en-suite bathroom, complete with a deep soaking tub that serves as a serene retreat. Residents will appreciate the charm of this established community, as well as its convenient access to Dulles Airport, major transportation routes, and a diverse array of shops and restaurants.

16. 2026-03-26
    listed $140,000 Active 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    This impeccably maintained three-bedroom, two-bathroom residence is situated in the highly sought-after community of Meadows of Chantilly. The home features a thoughtfully designed kitchen, enhanced by newly updated light fixtures and a modern microwave. The spacious primary suite offers a luxurious en-suite bathroom, complete with a deep soaking tub that serves as a serene retreat. Residents will appreciate the charm of this established community, as well as its convenient access to Dulles Airport, major transportation routes, and a diverse array of shops and restaurants.

17. 2024-03-18
    soldstatus $95,000 Closed 854-char remark

    Show marketing remark (854 chars)

    Move in ready manufactured home. Clean and well maintained throughout. 3 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Primary suite with a private ensuite bathroom with bathtub and a walk-in shower. The kitchen is spacious with tile backsplash and tons of cabinetry. Just off the kitchen is the laundry room housing a full-size washer & dryer, as well as walk-out access to the side deck! This home also offers a large shed for storage and an extended driveway for prime parking. Meadows of Chantilly is a Manufactured / Mobile Home Community where the home is owned and where the lot is not owned but on a "Leased Lot". The monthly Lease Lot payment is $1,655 and includes amenities as the community pool, club house, tot lots, snow removal. Super convenient location just off Rt 50 with close proximity to Rt 28, Dulles Airport, the Toll Rd and much more!

18. 2024-02-21
    status Pending 854-char remark

    Show marketing remark (854 chars)

    Move in ready manufactured home. Clean and well maintained throughout. 3 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Primary suite with a private ensuite bathroom with bathtub and a walk-in shower. The kitchen is spacious with tile backsplash and tons of cabinetry. Just off the kitchen is the laundry room housing a full-size washer & dryer, as well as walk-out access to the side deck! This home also offers a large shed for storage and an extended driveway for prime parking. Meadows of Chantilly is a Manufactured / Mobile Home Community where the home is owned and where the lot is not owned but on a "Leased Lot". The monthly Lease Lot payment is $1,655 and includes amenities as the community pool, club house, tot lots, snow removal. Super convenient location just off Rt 50 with close proximity to Rt 28, Dulles Airport, the Toll Rd and much more!

19. 2024-02-07
    listed $109,900 Active 854-char remark

    Show marketing remark (854 chars)

    Move in ready manufactured home. Clean and well maintained throughout. 3 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Primary suite with a private ensuite bathroom with bathtub and a walk-in shower. The kitchen is spacious with tile backsplash and tons of cabinetry. Just off the kitchen is the laundry room housing a full-size washer & dryer, as well as walk-out access to the side deck! This home also offers a large shed for storage and an extended driveway for prime parking. Meadows of Chantilly is a Manufactured / Mobile Home Community where the home is owned and where the lot is not owned but on a "Leased Lot". The monthly Lease Lot payment is $1,655 and includes amenities as the community pool, club house, tot lots, snow removal. Super convenient location just off Rt 50 with close proximity to Rt 28, Dulles Airport, the Toll Rd and much more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,960
• − Management: −$2,960
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $18,469
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,433
• After-tax cash flow: $14,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs to its exterior siding and interior walls, but is otherwise move-in ready with good systems and a good foundation. Paint and flooring updates would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant weathering and discoloration
• Minor interior walls — Some paint wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Both Replace carpeted flooring — Improves living space and rental appeal
• Both Paint interior walls — Freshens up interior and enhances rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant weathering and discoloration	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Some paint wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace carpeted flooring — Improves living space and rental appeal ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Freshens up interior and enhances rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfax County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101260
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $110,238
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #679
• State rank: #13 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chantilly

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #2106

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chantilly, VA
• County: Fairfax County · 1,104,456 people
• City population: 59,284
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 22,610
• Household income: $158,271
• Rent vs Own: 19.0% rent · 81.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 291.0

Population outlook (Fairfax County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,237,259 people
• By 2030: 1,277,758 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,346,508 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 1,397,919 · +13.0%
• By 2075: 1,493,100 · +20.7%
• By 2100: 1,465,712 · +18.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 37% White 33% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 42% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 11% Other Asian/Pacific 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairfax

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.0) · D 66.1% · R 31.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.8pp toward D · 2008: 21.2pp · 2024: 35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.0 2020: D+41.9 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+19.8 2008: D+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.61%
• Current HPI: 313.472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.33%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+9.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-18 Sold (MLS) $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-07 Listed $109,900 BRIGHT MLS