3901 Lincoln Grn · Pine Bluff, AR 71603

$72,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,419 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1973 9,583 sqft lot Est $132k · 45% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If you have been looking for the perfect project home, look at this one! This home sits high on a large lot with spacious turn in garage. Home has some water intrusion and will need remediation and costmetic updates but good layout and room sizes. See it today! RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Single-family property (one story inferred from listing context)
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Other (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; Additional flooring/materials noted in remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($964 rent vs $73k).
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 9.0% in Pine Bluff — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#483 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Pine Bluff School District (urban): math 6% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #236 of 238 in AR (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $503 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,800

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.03%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $131,967
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2912 Edgewood	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+0%)	17mo	$120,000	$84	56
3706 Fair Oaks Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,296 (-9%)	2mo	$70,000	$54	54
2306 W 38th Ave	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,454 (+2%)	14mo	$149,900	$103	50
3608 S Holly St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-14%)	14mo	$124,000	$102	49
4308 Garland Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,368 (-4%)	13mo	$69,000	$50	47
4007 S Fir St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,333 (-6%)	19mo	$125,000	$94	43
2827 E Edgewood Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,316 (-7%)	11mo	$136,500	$104	42
4005 S Fir	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,240 (-13%)	11mo	$115,000	$93	40
2304 W 39th Ave	0.70mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,550 (+9%)	18mo	$100,000	$65	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $7,696
• Equity at exit: $10,855

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $31,760
• Equity at exit: $6,294

Cash invested: $20,384 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71603

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$382
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $514/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $576

Max offer price $72,800

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,200
• Closing costs: $2,184
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3109 Daffodil St Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	1.0	980	$825	$0.84	43d	1	1.00mi
2319 W 27th Ave Unit B Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	907	$795	$0.88	43d	1	1.12mi
1907 W 28th Ave Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	1.5	947	$1,150	$1.21	43d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $72,800 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,800 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $72,800 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,800 New Listing 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,800 New Listing 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $72,800 New Listing 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 507-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $72,800 New Listing 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $514 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $514 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,078
• − Property taxes: −$514
• − Insurance: −$364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$925
• − Management: −$925
• − Depreciation: −$2,118
• Taxable income: $2,639
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$633
• After-tax cash flow: $3,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bluff School District
• NCES district ID: 0500026
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $32,374
• Composite: 5.86/100
• National rank: #10014
• State rank: #236 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pine Bluff

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #25645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Bluff, AR
• County: Jefferson County · 29,578 people
• City population: 29,578
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,578
• Household income: $53,130
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,110 people
• By 2030: 58,519 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 49,740 · -21.2%
• By 2050: 42,331 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 29,591 · -53.1%
• By 2100: 21,047 · -66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 33% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.2% · R 39.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: 20.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1 2020: D+21.7 2016: D+25.3 2012: D+29.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.43%
• Current HPI: 206.5994
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $72,800 CARMLS
• 2001-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $514 · -9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.