27980 Ruritan Rd · Denton, MD 21629

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1987 1.00 ac lot $51/sqft · 76% below area ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

CALLING ALL INVESTORS! This property in Denton is the one you have been waiting for! This one will not last! This Property is being sold As-Is condition. Buyer is responsible for all certifications. Seller never occupied. Neither the seller or listing agent make any representation as to the accuracy of any information contained herein. Buyer must conduct their own due diligence, verification, research and inspections and are relying solely on the results thereof. Buyer to pay all closing costs and transfer tax.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1987
• Listed 32 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Ownership: Fee simple

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Water: Other source
• Home design: Detached structure; Mixed construction materials; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,600 (estimated); No below-grade finished area reported
• Construction: Built year source: Assessor; Foundation listed as other; Other structures both above grade and below grade
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Interior features: Estimated living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 3.6% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#260 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, schools D-.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.66%
• DSCR: 3.48
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,472
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -76.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $109,653
• Equity at exit: $71,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.2%
• Equity multiple: 13.11×
• Total profit: $271,019
• Equity at exit: $155,228

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21629

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,429/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $1,038

Break-even live

Break-even rent $723

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $79,900 516-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $89,900 Active 516-char remark
3. 2025-07-07
   price $109,900
4. 2025-07-07
   historical
5. 2025-06-18
   listed $79,900 Active
6. 2025-05-08
   price $99,900
7. 2025-05-08
   historical
8. 2025-05-04
   price $79,900
9. 2025-05-04
   listed $97,900 Active
10. 2025-05-04
    historical
11. 2025-04-16
    price $79,900
12. 2025-04-01
    price $89,900
13. 2025-03-13
    listed $99,900 Active
14. 2025-03-13
    soldstatus $60,000
15. 2021-12-07
    soldstatus $48,000
16. 2021-11-29
    soldstatus $48,000 Closed
17. 2021-11-15
    status Pending
18. 2021-11-15
    status Pending
19. 2021-11-15
    historical
20. 2021-11-11
    price $50,000
21. 2021-11-11
    price $50,000
22. 2021-11-04
    price $65,000
23. 2021-11-04
    listed $65,000 Active
24. 2021-10-22
    price $80,000
25. 2021-10-12
    price $99,000
26. 2021-10-08
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,429 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,429 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,429
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,955
• − Management: −$1,955
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $11,903
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,857
• After-tax cash flow: $9,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400180
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,076
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8823
• State rank: #17 of 24 in MD

Livability — Denton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #13277

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,285
• Population (ZIP): 10,285

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,205 people
• By 2030: 30,204 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 27,866 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 25,342 · -18.8%
• By 2075: 20,554 · -34.1%
• By 2100: 17,415 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 29.9% · R 67.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.0pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+32.9 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+23.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.95%
• Current HPI: 356.683
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-38.5% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-29 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $109,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-18 Listed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-04 Price Changed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-04 Listed $97,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-13 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-29 Sold (MLS) $48,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-11 Price Changed $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-11 Price Changed $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-04 Price Changed $65,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-04 Listed $65,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-10-22 Price Changed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-10-12 Price Changed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-10-08 Listed $130,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,429 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.