5125 Old Canton Rd #218 · Jackson, MS 39211

$155,999

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,099 sqft · Condo public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1974 $74/sqft · 13% below area Est $179k · 13% under $350/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms | 2-Car Garage Welcome to your new sanctuary! Nestled within a prestigious gated community, this stunning residence offers the perfect blend of security, convenience, and modern style. Whether you're looking for a peaceful morning retreat or the ultimate social hub, this home delivers. Key Features • Move-In Ready: Freshly painted from floor to ceiling in a neutral, modern palette. Just bring your boxes and start living! • Prime Location: Ideally situated directly beside the community pool house. Enjoy the luxury of resort-style amenities just steps from your front door. • Entertainer's Dream: The spacious rear deck offers a front-row seat to the pool area--perfect for hosting summer BBQs or watching the action from the comfort of home. • Ample Storage: Beyond the attached 2-car garage, you'll find plenty of closets and storage solutions throughout the house to keep life organized.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Spacious rear deck
• Community pool house

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY POOL HOUSE
• SPACIOUS REAR DECK
• AMPLE STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (15.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.9%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,291 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,631
• List price: $155,999
• Delta: -12.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-24,841
• Equity at exit: $23,260

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $9,199
• Equity at exit: $13,488

Cash invested: $43,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39211

• Rents YoY: 7.9%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,748 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,457/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $131,291

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-52	-5% $-96	+0% $-140	+5% $-184	+10% $-228
Rent	-10% $-278	-5% $-209	+0% $-140	+5% $-71	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-61	-0.5pp $-100	base $-140	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,000
• Closing costs: $4,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5125 Old Canton Rd Jackson, MS	3.0	3.0	2025	$2,100	$1.04	24d	1	0.05mi
212 Pimlico Pl Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1600	$900	$0.56	14d	1	0.31mi
5301 Ridgewood Rd Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,850	$1.25	44d	1	0.44mi
5538 Pine Lane Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1627	$1,465	$0.90	44d	1	0.97mi
5544 Wayneland Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,831	$1.02	44d	1	1.02mi
20 N Hill Pkwy Jackson, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1046	$900	$0.86	14d	31	1.17mi
119 S Canton Club Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,595	$1.10	24d	1	1.36mi
4627 Estelle Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,475	$0.99	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,999 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,999 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,999 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,999 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,999 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,999 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,999 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,999 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,999 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,999 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,999 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,999 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,999 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,999 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,999 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    status $155,999 Active 88 DOM
17. 2026-03-30
    price $155,999 939-char remark

    Show marketing remark (939 chars)

    3 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms | 2-Car Garage Welcome to your new sanctuary! Nestled within a prestigious gated community, this stunning residence offers the perfect blend of security, convenience, and modern style. Whether you're looking for a peaceful morning retreat or the ultimate social hub, this home delivers. Key Features • Move-In Ready: Freshly painted from floor to ceiling in a neutral, modern palette. Just bring your boxes and start living! • Prime Location: Ideally situated directly beside the community pool house. Enjoy the luxury of resort-style amenities just steps from your front door. • Entertainer's Dream: The spacious rear deck offers a front-row seat to the pool area--perfect for hosting summer BBQs or watching the action from the comfort of home. • Ample Storage: Beyond the attached 2-car garage, you'll find plenty of closets and storage solutions throughout the house to keep life organized.

18. 2026-02-24
    listed $159,999 Active 939-char remark

    Show marketing remark (939 chars)

    3 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms | 2-Car Garage Welcome to your new sanctuary! Nestled within a prestigious gated community, this stunning residence offers the perfect blend of security, convenience, and modern style. Whether you're looking for a peaceful morning retreat or the ultimate social hub, this home delivers. Key Features • Move-In Ready: Freshly painted from floor to ceiling in a neutral, modern palette. Just bring your boxes and start living! • Prime Location: Ideally situated directly beside the community pool house. Enjoy the luxury of resort-style amenities just steps from your front door. • Entertainer's Dream: The spacious rear deck offers a front-row seat to the pool area--perfect for hosting summer BBQs or watching the action from the comfort of home. • Ample Storage: Beyond the attached 2-car garage, you'll find plenty of closets and storage solutions throughout the house to keep life organized.

19. 2024-03-27
    historical
20. 2024-03-22
    price $162,999
21. 2024-03-05
    price $159,999
22. 2024-02-12
    price $184,900
23. 2024-02-01
    listed $189,000 Active
24. 2022-05-18
    soldstatus
25. 2022-05-13
    soldstatus
26. 2022-03-21
    listed $155,000
27. 2015-07-23
    soldstatus
28. 1990-12-18
    soldstatus
29. 1986-12-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,457 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,457 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,738
• − Property taxes: −$3,457
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,679
• − Management: −$1,679
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,538
• Taxable loss: −$4,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$981
• After-tax cash flow: $-697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 23,838
• Household income: $69,426
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 736.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.99%
• Current HPI: 145.5192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $155,999 MLSU
• 2026-02-24 Listed $159,999 MLSU
• 2024-03-27 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-03-22 Price Changed $162,999 MLSU
• 2024-03-05 Price Changed $159,999 MLSU
• 2024-02-12 Price Changed $184,900 MLSU
• 2024-02-01 Listed $189,000 MLSU
• 2022-05-18 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-21 Listed $155,000 MLSU
• 2015-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,457 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.