4320 Vicki St · Flagler Estates, FL 32145

$289,888

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily · 185 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $303k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to our Beaumont plan. This modern space perfectly blends comfort and style with open concept living throughout the large kitchen, family and dining areas. The kitchen comes equipped with stainless steel appliances, white shaker cabinets and quartz countertops. The private owner's suite includes an ensuite bathroom with dual sinks and a walk in closet. The two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Make sure you check out the oversized laundry and covered back porch.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Open concept living
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• DUAL SINKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $299,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,416

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (BEAUMONT plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-635 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (31.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (40.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#763 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,221 (40.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.39%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,024
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10325 Dillon Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-0%)	8mo	$335,000	$237	72
10130 Isom Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+8%)	3mo	$310,000	$203	71
10315 Dillon Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+6%)	6mo	$319,000	$212	65
10010 Kirchherr Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,416 (0%)	2mo	$299,990	$212	64
10350 Baylor Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-1%)	2mo	$135,000	$96	62
4430 Regina St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+10%)	1mo	$340,990	$220	61
4215 Wanda St	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,239 (-12%)	1mo	$258,990	$209	58
4270 Alvin St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,243 (-12%)	8mo	$265,990	$214	55
4255 Alvin St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-12%)	4mo	$295,000	$238	54
4415 Olga St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,243 (-12%)	8mo	$265,990	$214	51
10145 Crotty Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,241 (-12%)	4mo	$340,000	$274	47
10340 Light Ave	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,239 (-12%)	6mo	$265,990	$215	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $117,469
• Equity at exit: $261,154

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $377,780
• Equity at exit: $563,189

Cash invested: $81,169 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32145

• Home prices YoY: 19.1%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,732 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,348/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-635

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,536

Max offer price $198,016

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,472
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,888 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $289,888 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,990 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,990 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,990 Active 182 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,990 Active 180 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,990 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $305,990 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,888 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,888 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $289,888 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 167 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,238
• − Property taxes: −$4,348
• − Insurance: −$1,449
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,663
• − Management: −$1,663
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$13,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,122
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Flagler Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #763
• US rank: #16863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagler Estates, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,750

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Estonian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.24%
• Current HPI: 250.8035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B