Morrow Plan · Houston, TX 77447

$280,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,951 sqft · SingleFamily · 353 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern design. On the first floor, a flexible open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. On the second floor, three secondary bedrooms surround a versatile loft for convenient shared living.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Versatile loft
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• VERSATILE LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $280,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $313,589.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $281k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $239,217 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.79%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,589
• List price: $280,990
• Delta: -10.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27242 Wheat Falls Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (-2%)	0mo	$281,640	$148	89
29067 Bison Haven Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,083 (+7%)	0mo	$305,290	$147	88
28807 Golden Wheat Ct	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-1%)	1mo	$259,990	$135	78
16847 Spotted Oak Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,066 (+6%)	0mo	$259,440	$126	74
16839 Old Wagon Way	0.32mi	4/2.0	2,066 (+6%)	1mo	$234,990	$114	73
28911 Rustic Robin Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-4%)	0mo	$298,990	$159	72
28534 Golden Hay Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,066 (+6%)	0mo	$248,000	$120	72
28803 Golden Wheat Ct	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,776 (-9%)	1mo	$275,440	$155	66
16122 Domestic Dove Way	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,776 (-9%)	0mo	$250,990	$141	61
16850 Old Wagon Way	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-14%)	1mo	$286,990	$172	57
28518 Golden Hay Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-14%)	1mo	$241,140	$144	57
16311 Golden Corral Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-10%)	1mo	$326,990	$187	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-75,452
• Equity at exit: $46,757

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-115,392
• Equity at exit: $27,113

Cash invested: $87,805 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,392 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,644
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$392 /mo · $4,704/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,743

Max offer price $273,460

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-61	-5% $-169	+0% $-277	+5% $-386	+10% $-494
Rent	-10% $-466	-5% $-372	+0% $-277	+5% $-183	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-119	-0.5pp $-198	base $-277	+0.5pp $-359	+1.0pp $-441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,397
• Closing costs: $9,408
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	45d	1	0.23mi
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	45d	1	0.36mi
29023 Pearl Barley Way Unit 3656 Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2395	$2,300	$0.96	26d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $280,990 Active 353 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $281,990 Active 350 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $286,990 Active 350 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   price $286,990 Active 349 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,990 Active 349 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,990 Active 348 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,990 Active 347 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,990 Active 345 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,990 Active 341 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $300,990 Active 340 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,990 Active 339 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $300,990 Active 336 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,990 Active 335 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,990 Active 334 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,990 Active 333 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,990 Active 332 DOM
17. 2025-07-03
    listed $300,990 Active 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern design. On the first floor, a flexible open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. On the second floor, three secondary bedrooms surround a versatile loft for convenient shared living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,706
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,566
• − Property taxes: −$4,704
• − Insurance: −$1,568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,296
• − Management: −$2,296
• − Depreciation: −$9,123
• Taxable loss: −$8,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,123
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-03 Listed $300,990 Zillow