15626 Tranquil Pines St · Grangerland, TX 77302

$289,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,185 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,625 sqft lot Est $297k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Granger Pines, one of Legend's newest communities in Conroe, TX! Now featuring Legend’s NEW Smart Home package and Signature Design Collection! The Sienna floor plan is a spacious two-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a study, game room, and a 2-car garage! The home has it all, including privacy blinds and vinyl plank flooring throughout the first-floor common areas. The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42' cabinets, silestone countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Washer, dryer and refrigerator are included, too! Upstairs offers a private retreat for all bedrooms! Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with silestone countertops, a separat

Key facts

• Smart home package
• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio

Tags

• SMART HOME PACKAGE
• SIGNATURE DESIGN COLLECTION
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRIVACY BLINDS
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $294,431

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home — The Sienna plan; Spec/new construction
• Construction: Living area approximately 2185 (per listing)
• Exterior features: Located on a residential lot at 15626 Tranquil Pines St, Conroe, TX

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (standard for The Sienna plan)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (per plan); Spec home — The Sienna plan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-827/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Milam El (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 524 students, 82% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $251,789 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16827 Country Roots Ave	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,173 (-0%)	2mo	$306,990	$141	78
15611 Country Charm Trl	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,084 (-5%)	1mo	$322,258	$155	75
16767 Country Roots Ave	0.25mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,034 (-7%)	0mo	$310,990	$153	70
14154 Granger Pointe	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,255 (+3%)	1mo	$269,540	$120	64
16812 Needlepoint Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5	2,026 (-7%)	1mo	$269,765	$133	59
16866 Needlepoint Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,049 (-6%)	2mo	$279,212	$136	53
14300 Ash Tree Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5	2,447 (+12%)	1mo	$324,900	$133	52
16981 Hazelnut Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,447 (+12%)	2mo	$334,900	$137	52
14143 Granger Pointe Ln	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,981 (-9%)	2mo	$252,790	$128	51
14305 Grey Pointe	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,981 (-9%)	1mo	$269,790	$136	51
14337 Ash Tree Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	2,447 (+12%)	1mo	$319,900	$131	50
14308 Grey Pointe Ct	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,981 (-9%)	2mo	$264,640	$134	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-50,547
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-46,232
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,518 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,605

Max offer price $280,017

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $31	+0% $-69	+5% $-169	+10% $-269
Rent	-10% $-268	-5% $-168	+0% $-69	+5% $31	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $5	base $-69	+0.5pp $-144	+1.0pp $-221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,900	$1.14	0d	13	0.70mi
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	45d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,990 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $289,990 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,431 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,431 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,431 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,431 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,431 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,431 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $294,431 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $294,431 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,431 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,431 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,431 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,431 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,417
• − Management: −$2,417
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,747
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,379
• After-tax cash flow: $552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-story home is in good condition with a modern interior and exterior. It features a large family room and study, making it ideal for families or professionals. The property is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B