419 S 10th St · Belen, NM 87002

$180,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,914 sqft · Other · 278 Days on market

Built 1977 0.40 ac lot $94/sqft · 29% below area Est $255k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unlock the Potential of this Spacious Belen Home!Two-story 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers nearly 2,000 square feet of living space on a large . 40-acre lot--Newer Metal, Roof Great for buyers or investors ready to restore and personalize. Some updates have been started, Metal Roof, including several newer windows, giving you a head start on improvements. Bring your vision and creativity. .

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 278 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.5% in Belen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#72 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, schools F, crime F.
• Belen Consolidated Schools (other): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #50 of 95 in NM (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 278 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 278 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.82%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,820
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -29.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,961
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $13,801
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87002

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,470/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,445

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 278 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 277 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 276 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 275 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 273 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 270 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 269 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 267 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $180,000 Active 263 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 262 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 260 DOM
13. 2025-09-13
    listed $180,000 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Unlock the Potential of this Spacious Belen Home!Two-story 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers nearly 2,000 square feet of living space on a large . 40-acre lot--Newer Metal, Roof Great for buyers or investors ready to restore and personalize. Some updates have been started, Metal Roof, including several newer windows, giving you a head start on improvements. Bring your vision and creativity. .

14. 2022-03-31
    price $96,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,470 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,470 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,470
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $530
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$127
• After-tax cash flow: $3,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belen Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500180
• Math proficiency: 19% —
• Reading proficiency: 28% —
• Median HH income: $38,445
• Composite: 22.79/100
• National rank: #13408
• State rank: #50 of 95 in NM

Livability — Belen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #14908

Category grades

Amenities C Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety B User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belen, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• City population: 21,265
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 21,265
• Household income: $51,961
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 318.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 31% Two or more races 28% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.62%
• Current HPI: 219.5581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+87.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-13 Listed $180,000 Southwest MLS
• 2022-03-31 Price Changed $96,000 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,470 · +21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.