3011 Harrison Dr · Saginaw, MI 48604

$84,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,068 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1930 8,712 sqft lot Est $97k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated Bungalow in the Heart of Carrollton. Two Bedrooms along with an in home office. Move in ready with appliances. Deep Lot, with Oversized Garage with Additional Storage/Workshop Area Built on Back

Key facts

• Deep lot
• In home office
• Oversized garage

Tags

• IN HOME OFFICE
• DEEP LOT
• OVERSIZED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $563 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Carrollton Public Schools (suburban): math 9% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #485 of 540 in MI (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,626 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.44%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $97,188
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2955 Eddy St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,107 (+4%)	6mo	$75,200	$68	83
626 Stoker Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,012 (-5%)	1mo	$65,000	$64	80
3047 Jackson St	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,124 (+5%)	6mo	$49,900	$44	79
2981 Harrison St	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,196 (+12%)	6mo	$65,000	$54	73
3459 Church St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,024 (-4%)	4mo	$120,000	$117	64
723 Pioneer Trl	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,194 (+12%)	2mo	$109,000	$91	60
3035 Schaeffer St	0.22mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,186 (+11%)	6mo	$78,500	$66	60
587 Meadowlawn St	0.29mi	3/1.0	925 (-13%)	7mo	$127,000	$137	58
904 Oakview Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+3%)	3mo	$159,000	$145	55
2459 Benjamin St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,023 (-4%)	8mo	$50,000	$49	48
2241 Moonglow Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+12%)	2mo	$225,000	$188	42
2161 Plainview	0.62mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,211 (+13%)	6mo	$158,000	$130	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $22,100
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $65,330
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48604

• Home prices YoY: -24.6%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $269/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $563

Break-even live

Break-even rent $637

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4070 Green Isle Way Saginaw, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,350	$1.42	43d	15	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-05-27
   soldstatus $62,000
2. 2025-05-23
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Updated Bungalow in the Heart of Carrollton. Two Bedrooms along with an in home office. Move in ready with appliances. Deep Lot, with Oversized Garage with Additional Storage/Workshop Area Built on Back

3. 2025-05-23
   status Pending 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Updated Bungalow in the Heart of Carrollton. Two Bedrooms along with an in home office. Move in ready with appliances. Deep Lot, with Oversized Garage with Additional Storage/Workshop Area Built on Back

4. 2025-05-13
   price $84,900 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Updated Bungalow in the Heart of Carrollton. Two Bedrooms along with an in home office. Move in ready with appliances. Deep Lot, with Oversized Garage with Additional Storage/Workshop Area Built on Back

5. 2025-05-13
   price $84,900

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Updated Bungalow in the Heart of Carrollton. Two Bedrooms along with an in home office. Move in ready with appliances. Deep Lot, with Oversized Garage with Additional Storage/Workshop Area Built on Back

6. 2025-05-05
   listed $89,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Updated Bungalow in the Heart of Carrollton. Two Bedrooms along with an in home office. Move in ready with appliances. Deep Lot, with Oversized Garage with Additional Storage/Workshop Area Built on Back

7. 2025-05-05
   listed $89,900 Active 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Updated Bungalow in the Heart of Carrollton. Two Bedrooms along with an in home office. Move in ready with appliances. Deep Lot, with Oversized Garage with Additional Storage/Workshop Area Built on Back

8. 2010-05-21
   soldstatus $24,900
9. 2010-05-10
   soldstatus $24,900 244-char remark

   Show marketing remark (244 chars)

   Great starter home Carrollton Twp, This 2 bedroom home sits on a large lot has a eat-in kitchen, formal dining area, formal living room and family room. Great location to churches, malls and the expressway. Call today for your personal showing!

10. 2010-05-10
    soldstatus $24,900

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Great starter home Carrollton Twp, This 2 bedroom home sits on a large lot has a eat-in kitchen, formal dining area, formal living room and family room. Great location to churches, malls and the expressway. Call today for your personal showing!

11. 2010-04-08
    historical
12. 2009-09-16
    listed $24,900 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Great starter home Carrollton Twp, This 2 bedroom home sits on a large lot has a eat-in kitchen, formal dining area, formal living room and family room. Great location to churches, malls and the expressway. Call today for your personal showing!

13. 2009-09-16
    listed $24,900

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Great starter home Carrollton Twp, This 2 bedroom home sits on a large lot has a eat-in kitchen, formal dining area, formal living room and family room. Great location to churches, malls and the expressway. Call today for your personal showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $269 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $788 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$519/yr (+$43/mo · 193.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$269
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $5,689
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,365
• After-tax cash flow: $5,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrollton Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2608070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,147
• Composite: 14.74/100
• National rank: #9395
• State rank: #485 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 11,284

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 6% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.55%
• Current HPI: 210.5278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+149.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-23 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-05-23 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $84,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-05-05 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-05-05 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $24,900 Public Records
• 2010-05-10 Sold (MLS) $24,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-05-10 Sold (MLS) $24,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-04-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-09-16 Listed $24,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-09-16 Listed $24,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $269 · -81.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.