981 State Route 51 · West Winfield, NY 13357

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1890 5,663 sqft lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Embrace this incredible opportunity to transform a diamond in the rough into your dream country retreat, tailored to your unique tastes and desires. While the current state demands major renovations, the rewards are immense - instant equity in today's soaring housing market and the chance to craft a personalized oasis. Envision spacious rooms, ample bedrooms, and bathrooms seamlessly blending into an easy-living floor plan. Unleash your creativity in the massive attached garage and workshop, indulging in hobbies and pursuits that bring you joy. The owner's thoughtful plans provide a head start, guiding you towards realizing your vision. Nestled in a charming hamlet, yet moments away from the valley's vibrant attractions, this property's location is a true gem. Cash or rehab loans are welcome as you embark on this exciting journey, breathing new life into a space that will become an extension of your dreams. Seize this chance to build your forever home from the ground up!

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Built 1890
• Listed 18 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Utilities present (heating: oil, forced air)
• Home design: Single-story property; Existing construction; Resale condition
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Stone foundation; Built (existing structure)
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Irregular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 55 x 166

Interior

• Kitchen: Water heater noted in equipment; See remarks for additional kitchen details
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (includes living areas)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Forced air; Heating present
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Crawl space/partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $494 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#734 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mount Markham Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #393 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $100k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.16%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $51,832
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
981 State Route 51	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,672 (0%)	17mo	$52,500	$31	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $63,490
• Equity at exit: $66,192

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $161,474
• Equity at exit: $123,018

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13357

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,531 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,799/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $906

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $550	-5% $522	+0% $494	+5% $466	+10% $437
Rent	-10% $373	-5% $433	+0% $494	+5% $554	+10% $615
Rate	-1.0pp $544	-0.5pp $519	base $494	+0.5pp $468	+1.0pp $442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $100,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,799 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,799 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,799
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,470
• − Management: −$1,470
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $4,627
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,110
• After-tax cash flow: $4,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Markham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630930
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,456
• Composite: 42.3/100
• National rank: #3262
• State rank: #393 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Winfield

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #14006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,073

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.52%
• Current HPI: 299.4657
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $100,000 CNYIS
• 2025-01-24 Sold (MLS) $52,500 CNYIS
• 2024-06-18 Pending — CNYIS
• 2024-06-12 Listed $59,900 CNYIS
• 2023-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-10 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2022-07-18 Price Changed $90,000 CNYIS
• 2022-06-30 Listed $94,900 CNYIS
• 2022-06-30 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2022-06-15 Price Changed $95,000 CNYIS
• 2022-06-10 Listed $110,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,799 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.