3718 Hornbill Dr · Crandall, TX 75114

$279,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,062 sqft · Land · 123 Days on market

Built 2025 7,841 sqft lot $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Arbors at Eastland - Springsteen Floorplan - This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner’s needs. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Accessory unit present (1,604 sq ft)
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA and VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA management by SW Legacy; Annual association fee; Association covers maintenance of grounds, management fees and full use of facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Garage faces front; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story (single level); New construction (incomplete, 2025)
• Construction: Brick, siding and other exterior materials; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Subdivision setting; Concrete curbs and sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Walk-in pantry; Natural stone/granite countertops; Water line to refrigerator; Vented exhaust fan; Built-in cabinets
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Pantry; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Appliances included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($832/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.3% in Crandall — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Walker El (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 663 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 41% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 787 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $228,062 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-41,044
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-30,418
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 787
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,281 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,264/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,193

Max offer price $279,999

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2204 Boiling Springs Rd Crandall, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1497	$2,406	$1.61	1d	5	0.64mi
2109 Muscovy St Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2300	$2,200	$0.96	24d	1	0.98mi
3103 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,729	$1.20	3d	1	0.99mi
2505 Milne Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	18d	1	1.02mi
3121 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	43d	1	1.05mi
2960 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	43d	1	1.06mi
2973 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,665	$1.16	43d	1	1.09mi
3147 Blossom Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2177	$2,700	$1.24	43d	1	1.11mi
3315 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,685	$1.17	43d	1	1.12mi
3007 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,950	$1.35	43d	1	1.16mi
3011 Temple Gate Ct Crandall, TX	5.0	3.0	2730	$3,300	$1.21	1d	1	1.19mi
2043 Serval Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,100	$1.36	43d	1	1.20mi
3750 Honey Daisy Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	3.5	2885	$2,750	$0.95	10d	1	1.23mi
2296 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	2315	$1,720	$0.74	6d	1	1.24mi
3028 Willow Wood Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,600	$1.47	43d	1	1.26mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.26mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.35mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	1.36mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.38mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.39mi
2117 Ocelot St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,875	$1.27	43d	1	1.39mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.40mi
2237 Mustang Ghost Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1952	$2,040	$1.05	43d	1	1.41mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	1.41mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,400	$1.46	6d	1	1.42mi
2504 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,799	$1.25	43d	1	1.42mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	1.45mi
3716 Pincoffs Cv Crandall, TX	4.0	2.5	2374	$2,619	$1.10	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $279,999
2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-11
   price $284,914
4. 2026-05-11
   status Active
5. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-04
   price $282,914
7. 2026-02-24
   price $290,914
8. 2026-02-13
   price $295,914
9. 2026-02-06
   price $299,914
10. 2025-12-26
    price $330,999
11. 2025-12-26
    status Active
12. 2025-12-21
    status Pending
13. 2025-12-03
    price $289,999
14. 2025-12-01
    price $290,999
15. 2025-11-24
    price $291,999
16. 2025-11-21
    price $297,999
17. 2025-11-18
    listed $299,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,124 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,860/yr (+$322/mo · 305.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,264
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,189
• − Management: −$2,189
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,009
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$962
• After-tax cash flow: $1,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crandall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #10022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 9,333
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $279,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $284,914 NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $282,914 NTREIS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $290,914 NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $295,914 NTREIS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $299,914 NTREIS
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $330,999 NTREIS
• 2025-12-26 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-12-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $289,999 NTREIS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $290,999 NTREIS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $291,999 NTREIS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $297,999 NTREIS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $299,999 NTREIS