Madison-403 Plan · San Francisco, CA 94124

$406,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Condo · 461 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The living room, kitchen and dining room share a convenient and contemporary open floorplan in this single-story, one-bedroom condo, allowing for effortless flow between rooms and a layout that helps maximize the interior footprint. The owner's suite is a restful space, comprised of a comfortable bedroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the semi-en-suite bathroom.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Garage

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $406,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $462,902.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $406k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $353k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,088/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 1605% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 461 days — a 12% lower offer ($357k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $308,847 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 461 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.49%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $462,902
• List price: $406,000
• Delta: -12.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-167,339
• Equity at exit: $69,020

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.7%
• Equity multiple: -1.03×
• Total profit: $-263,285
• Equity at exit: $40,023

Cash invested: $129,613 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94124

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,088 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,428
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$579 /mo · $6,944/yr
• Insurance: −$193
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$698
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$649
• Net cashflow: $-1,457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,933

Max offer price $252,054

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,137	-5% $-1,297	+0% $-1,457	+5% $-1,617	+10% $-1,777
Rent	-10% $-1,701	-5% $-1,579	+0% $-1,457	+5% $-1,335	+10% $-1,213
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,224	-0.5pp $-1,339	base $-1,457	+0.5pp $-1,577	+1.0pp $-1,699

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,725
• Closing costs: $13,887
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $406,000 Active 461 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $406,000 Active 460 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $406,000 Active 459 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $406,000 Active 458 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $406,000 Active 456 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $406,000 Active 455 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $406,000 Active 452 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $406,000 Active 451 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $406,000 Active 450 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $406,000 Active 447 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $406,000 Active 446 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $406,000 Active 445 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $406,000 Active 444 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $406,000 Active 443 DOM
15. 2025-03-14
    listed $406,000 Active 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    The living room, kitchen and dining room share a convenient and contemporary open floorplan in this single-story, one-bedroom condo, allowing for effortless flow between rooms and a layout that helps maximize the interior footprint. The owner's suite is a restful space, comprised of a comfortable bedroom, walk-in closet and direct access to the semi-en-suite bathroom.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,930
• − Property taxes: −$6,944
• − Insurance: −$2,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,965
• − Management: −$2,965
• − HOA: −$8,376
• − Depreciation: −$13,466
• Taxable loss: −$25,898
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,216
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,475
• Household income: $80,509
• Rent vs Own: 49.7% rent · 50.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1605.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 36% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 9% White 8% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 37% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Chinese 24% Spanish 20% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -909.13%
• Current HPI: 275.3568
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-03-14 Listed $406,000 Zillow