14831 Goldcone · Magalia, CA 95954

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1980 10,019 sqft lot Est $181k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

High ceiling in living room, dining room and den. Great woodstove and built in hutch in dining room Pantry and breakfast bar in kitchen. Large Garden tub and separate shower in master bath. Split bedroom plan. Large laundry room with sink, desk and lots of cabinets. Separate building with a 3/4 bath could be used as a game room, workshop, guest quarters or studio. 433A Foundation . Square feet, year and lot size from Realist . Buyer to verify if important

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RT-1; Paved road access; Parcel number 065310028000; Directions: Skyway right on Rosewood to end, left on Northwood, right on Fallen Leaf to Goldcone to the left
• Financial info: Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Rural community with horse trails; Biking and fishing nearby; Foothills setting

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank; Private water
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; One total unit; No shared/common walls; No accessory dwelling unit (ADU)
• Construction: Metal roof; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Yard; Chain link fence; No pool; Has view; Lot listed from assessor's data

Interior

• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on ground floor; At least one bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Has cooling (details in remarks)
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry at level; Main floor bedroom(s); Living room; Den with fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 4.0% in Magalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,094 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.33%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,248
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14824 Goldcone Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	9mo	$215,000	$149	75
6482 Rosewood Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+7%)	9mo	$210,000	$128	55
14733 Memory	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-4%)	4mo	$215,000	$146	54
6595 Grandview Ave	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	7mo	$170,000	$118	53
6488 Placer Ct	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-11%)	6mo	$115,000	$84	50
14825 Del Oro	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	6mo	$105,000	$78	50
14830 Del Oro Dr	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+9%)	9mo	$195,000	$116	48
14807 Glenwood Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	23mo	$148,000	$103	48
14721 Magnolia Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-11%)	19mo	$85,000	$62	47
14862 Crescent Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	11mo	$180,000	$125	46
14779 Denise Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,638 (+7%)	23mo	$159,900	$98	37
14568 Holmwood Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	6mo	$175,000	$130	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $16,805
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $56,919
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95954

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $988/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $572	-5% $544	+0% $516	+5% $488	+10% $460
Rent	-10% $400	-5% $458	+0% $516	+5% $574	+10% $632
Rate	-1.0pp $566	-0.5pp $541	base $516	+0.5pp $490	+1.0pp $464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14745 Del Oro Dr Magalia, CA	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,525	$1.17	14d	1	0.66mi
14745 Del Oro Dr Magalia, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,525	$1.17	22d	1	0.66mi
14767 Masterson Way Magalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,400	$0.97	14d	1	0.97mi
14435 Skyway Magalia, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,325	$1.10	14d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   remarks 613-char remark
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   remarks 590-char remark
8. 2026-05-30
   listed $99,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 42 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$988
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,408
• − Management: −$1,408
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $4,874
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,170
• After-tax cash flow: $5,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Magalia

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1094
• US rank: #25434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magalia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,488

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Russian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.49%
• Current HPI: 194.8809
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+23.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-29 Coming Soon $99,000 CRMLS
• 2014-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-21 Sold (MLS) $75,000 CRMLS
• 2014-02-15 Pending — CRMLS
• 2014-01-30 Listed $81,200 CRMLS
• 2011-08-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-08-10 Listed $77,000 CRMLS
• 2007-07-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-10-23 Listed $177,500 CRMLS
• 2004-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $988 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.