4930 40th St NE · Orangetree, FL 34120

$400,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,490 sqft · Land · 147 Days on market

Built 2026 1.14 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

L. 2127 - Fastest growing area of Golden Gate Estates! Biuld your dream home here! No environmental study available. Seller recommends Buyer get thier own study.

Key facts

• 1.14 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 1.14 acres; Lot described as regular with horses ok; Lot dimensions from survey (approx. frontage 75'); Road access: paved public road; Property type: Residential, single unit, single floor
• HOA & community: No HOA maintenance; Community is non-gated; Horses allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Security: Impact resistant doors and windows
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer; Electric service: Central electric
• Home design: Single-family residential (Florida style); 1 story; Rear exposure: East; Located in Golden Gate Estates
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Shingle roof; Built in 2026; Foundation: (not specified)
• Exterior features: Room for pool; Automatic sprinkler system; Stucco exterior; Impact resistant windows and doors; Single-hung windows

Interior

• Kitchen: Island kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms plus den (split bedroom layout)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Tray ceiling; Laundry tub; Formal dining; Open porch/lanai; Den / home office; Split bedroom floor plan; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer/dryer hookup; Laundry tub; Auto garage door opener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $352k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $327k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#636 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1132 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $400k implies a 1233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $327,235 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-95,358
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-146,680
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34120

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1132
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,272 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $6,000/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$687
• Net cashflow: $-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,692

Max offer price $352,076

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-55	-5% $-193	+0% $-331	+5% $-469	+10% $-608
Rent	-10% $-590	-5% $-460	+0% $-331	+5% $-202	+10% $-73
Rate	-1.0pp $-130	-0.5pp $-229	base $-331	+0.5pp $-435	+1.0pp $-540

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3061 52nd Ave NE Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,990	$1.77	25d	1	1.27mi
3660 39th Ave NE Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,900	$2.09	23d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $400,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $400,000 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $400,000 Active 143 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $400,000 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $400,000 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $400,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $400,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $400,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $400,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $400,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $400,000 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $400,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $400,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $400,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $400,000 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-01-25
    listed $400,000 Active
17. 2024-09-12
    historical
18. 2024-06-22
    price $515,000
19. 2024-05-11
    listed $525,000 Active
20. 2018-10-02
    soldstatus $30,000
21. 2018-09-28
    soldstatus $30,000 Sold 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    L. 2127 - Fastest growing area of Golden Gate Estates! Biuld your dream home here! No environmental study available. Seller recommends Buyer get thier own study.

22. 2018-08-19
    status Pending With Contingencies 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    L. 2127 - Fastest growing area of Golden Gate Estates! Biuld your dream home here! No environmental study available. Seller recommends Buyer get thier own study.

23. 2018-07-17
    listed $33,000 Active 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    L. 2127 - Fastest growing area of Golden Gate Estates! Biuld your dream home here! No environmental study available. Seller recommends Buyer get thier own study.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$6,000
• − Insurance: −$3,824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,141
• − Management: −$3,141
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$10,882
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,612
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orangetree

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #636
• US rank: #12453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,345
• Household income: $93,861
• Rent vs Own: 9.4% rent · 90.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 409.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 13%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 28% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.18%
• Current HPI: 316.2474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1112.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-25 Listed $400,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-09-12 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2024-06-22 Price Changed $515,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-05-11 Listed $525,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2018-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-28 Sold (MLS) $30,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2018-08-19 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2018-07-17 Listed $33,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $414 · +16.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.