4 Brisbane Ct · Berkeley, NJ 08757

$279,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1983 5,662 sqft lot Est $361k · 23% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Time to say goodbye to the home the seller has loved for 33 years!!!! This Capri is on a great street In HC West. Come make this home your own!!! The owner has had everything serviced every year, including sprinkler system, A/C, Furnace, Pest control company.. most systems under service contracts.

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($963/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,493/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $279k implies a 249% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,303 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $361,216
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Preston Ct	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	0mo	$350,000	$284	79
1 Redlands Ct	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	1mo	$349,000	$283	78
13 Greenville Ct	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,328 (0%)	0mo	$329,900	$248	73
373 Costa Mesa Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	0mo	$418,500	$340	69
409 Costa Mesa Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,424 (+7%)	1mo	$360,000	$253	67
211 Bonaire Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,264 (-5%)	1mo	$305,000	$241	64
76 Troumaka St	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	1mo	$286,000	$232	63
5 Corfu Ct	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	1mo	$515,000	$358	60
139 Torrey Pines Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,508 (+14%)	1mo	$410,000	$272	60
3 Montego St	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	1mo	$254,500	$207	59
1 Miramar Ct	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	1mo	$335,000	$272	53
71 Winterton Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,502 (+13%)	1mo	$329,900	$220	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-40,083
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-28,263
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,214/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,391

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Purnell St Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	1d	1	0.11mi
510 Jamaica Blvd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,500	$1.98	1d	1	0.96mi
159 Fort de France Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,475	$1.72	6d	1	0.99mi
56 Auburn Rd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1514	$2,650	$1.75	1d	1	1.17mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	1d	1	1.29mi
59 Guadeloupe Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1126	$2,300	$2.04	1d	1	1.35mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	1d	3	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $279,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-05-18
   price $279,000 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   Time to say goodbye to the home the seller has loved for 33 years!!!! This Capri is on a great street In HC West. Come make this home your own!!! The owner has had everything serviced every year, including sprinkler system, A/C, Furnace, Pest control company.. most systems under service contracts.

6. 2026-05-11
   listed $289,500 Active 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   Time to say goodbye to the home the seller has loved for 33 years!!!! This Capri is on a great street In HC West. Come make this home your own!!! The owner has had everything serviced every year, including sprinkler system, A/C, Furnace, Pest control company.. most systems under service contracts.

7. 1992-07-29
   soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,214 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,081 · $423/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,866/yr (+$156/mo · 58.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$3,214
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,393
• − Management: −$2,393
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$3,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$895
• After-tax cash flow: $1,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Berkeley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+248.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $279,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $289,500 MOMLS
• 1992-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,214 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.