🏗️ New Construction
Palmer Plan · Navarre, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 105°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Cash flow +6.9/30.0
- Schools +6.2/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- Rent growth +3.2/5.0
- 1% rule +1.9/10.0
- DSCR +1.2/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$302,990
Palmer Plan · Navarre, FL 32566
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,062 sqft · SingleFamily
· 279 Days on market
2-car garage
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
4 Bedroom + 2 Bath New Construction Home Welcome to the Palmer, a home from our Value collection designed to enhance family and friend gatherings with its open living concept. This spacious home boasts 4 bedrooms and 2 baths, providing ample space for all your needs. As you step into the Palmer, you'll be greeted by the inviting open living room and dining room, creating a warm and welcoming ambiance. Continuing further, you'll discover the well-appointed kitchen and great room, perfect for entertaining and creating lasting memories. The owners' suite is privately located off its own hallway, offering a tranquil retreat.
Key facts
- Owners suite
- Walk-in closet
- Open living concept
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction.
The $302,990 list price is a builder
figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from
comparable previous sales — $370,940.
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $303k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-554 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (4.0% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (16.0% below list).
- Recommended offer: $254k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 70/100 on livability (#435 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
- Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: West Navarre Intermediate School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 813 students, 37% FRL); Woodlawn Beach Middle School (math 68% / reading 60%, grade B+, #105 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 34% FRL); Navarre High School (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #146 of 667 statewide, top 22%, 2,406 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 1124 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 119d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 81% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$254,405
(16.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.69% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.50%
- Cash-on-cash
- -6.40%
- DSCR
- 0.72
- GRM
- 12.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $370,940
- List price
- $302,990
- Delta
- -18.32%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 Sparrow Ln | 0.18mi | 4/2.5 | 2,276 (+10%) | 1mo | $449,000 | $197 | 72 |
| 1933 Seahawk Ln | 0.24mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,945 (-6%) | 4mo | $440,000 | $226 | 71 |
| 1842 Seahawk Ln | 0.30mi | 4/2.0 | 2,261 (+10%) | 2mo | $449,000 | $199 | 68 |
| 6913 Sea Shark Cir | 0.60mi | 4/2.0 | 2,004 (-3%) | 1mo | $359,000 | $179 | 66 |
| 1830 Seahawk Ln | 0.33mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,877 (-9%) | 3mo | $424,000 | $226 | 62 |
| 1852 Candlewood Dr | 0.50mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,222 (+8%) | 3mo | $379,000 | $171 | 56 |
| 6977 Leisure St | 0.67mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,003 (-3%) | 4mo | $455,500 | $227 | 56 |
| 6958 Elliots Gin Ln | 0.28mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,752 (-15%) | 5mo | $375,000 | $214 | 53 |
| 1412 Castnet Dr | 0.69mi | 4/2.0 | 2,248 (+9%) | 4mo | $495,000 | $220 | 49 |
| 7053 Leisure St | 0.75mi | 4/2.0 | 1,840 (-11%) | 1mo | $439,000 | $239 | 46 |
| 6835 Liberty St | 0.74mi | 4/2.0 | 2,281 (+11%) | 2mo | $465,000 | $204 | 46 |
| 1716 Sea Lark Ln | 0.64mi | 4/3.0 | 2,284 (+11%) | 7mo | $480,000 | $210 | 43 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 2.74% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -27.6%
- Equity multiple
- 0.08×
- Total profit
- $-95,998
- Equity at exit
- $55,308
10-year hold
- IRR
- -26.9%
- Equity multiple
- -0.27×
- Total profit
- $-131,555
- Equity at exit
- $32,072
Cash invested: $103,863 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 43 active · 18 under contract
- Months of supply
- 8.9 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $415,990 ($197/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 119 d
- This list price
- 12% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -8.8% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 32566
- Home prices YoY
- -26.2%
- Rents YoY
- 2.7%
- Active inventory
- 1124
- Price-to-rent
- 9.9×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,544 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,945
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$464 /mo · $5,564/yr
- Insurance
- −$155
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$534
- Net cashflow
- $-554
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$3,245
Max offer price
$290,821
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-297 | -5% $-426 | +0% $-554 | +5% $-682 | +10% $-810 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-755 | -5% $-654 | +0% $-554 | +5% $-453 | +10% $-353 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-367 | -0.5pp $-459 | base $-554 | +0.5pp $-650 | +1.0pp $-748 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $92,735
- Closing costs
- $11,128
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 16 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1837 Sunrise Dr Navarre, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1939 | $2,250 | $1.16 | 119d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 1837 Sunrise Dr Navarre, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1939 | $2,200 | $1.13 | 109d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 6952 Cotton Boll Ln Navarre, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1898 | $2,195 | $1.16 | 119d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 6622 Perch St Navarre, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1563 | $2,100 | $1.34 | 119d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 7160 Blue Jack Dr Navarre, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2171 | $2,595 | $1.20 | 119d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 1827 Sundown Dr Navarre, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1556 | $2,000 | $1.29 | 119d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 2308 Valley Pl Navarre, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2740 | $2,550 | $0.93 | 109d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 2308 Valley Pl Navarre, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2740 | $2,650 | $0.97 | 119d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 1708 Briza del Mar Dr Navarre, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2642 | $2,900 | $1.10 | 6d | 1 | 1.08mi |
| 1855 Lindsey Magnolia Ct Navarre, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2124 | $2,695 | $1.27 | 109d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 2360 Crescent Rd Navarre, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1896 | $2,175 | $1.15 | 109d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 2360 Crescent Rd Navarre, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1896 | $2,175 | $1.15 | 119d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 7325 Emily Magnolia Ct Navarre, FL | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2510 | $2,800 | $1.12 | 119d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 6539 Forest Bay Ave Gulf Breeze, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1786 | $2,700 | $1.51 | 6d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 7392 Old Magnolia Ct Navarre, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2502 | $2,850 | $1.14 | 6d | 1 | 1.42mi |
| 2426 Houston Cir Gulf Breeze, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1474 | $2,500 | $1.70 | 119d | 1 | 1.49mi |
Property features AI
Exterior
- Parking
- 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
- Home design
- New construction plan home (Palmer)
- Exterior features
- Living area approximately 2062 (listed)
Interior
- Bedrooms
- 4 bedrooms
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Interior features
- Plan name: PalmerActive listing
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-24days on market $302,990 Active 279 DOM
-
2026-09-23days on market $302,990 Active 278 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $302,990 Active 277 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $302,990 Active 276 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $302,990 Active 275 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $302,990 Active 274 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $302,990 Active 273 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $302,990 Active 272 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $302,990 Active 271 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $302,990 Active 270 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $302,990 Active 269 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $302,990 Active 268 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $302,990 Active 267 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $302,990 Active 260 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $302,990 Active 259 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $302,990 Active 258 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $302,990 Active 255 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $302,990 Active 254 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $302,990 Active 253 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $302,990 Active 252 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $302,990 Active 251 DOM
-
2026-08-26days on market $302,990 Active 250 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $302,990 Active 249 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $302,990 Active 248 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $302,990 Active 247 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $302,990 Active 246 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $302,990 Active 245 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $302,990 Active 244 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $302,990 Active 243 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $302,990 Active 242 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $302,990 Active 241 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $302,990 Active 240 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $302,990 Active 239 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $302,990 Active 238 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $302,990 Active 237 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $302,990 Active 236 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $302,990 Active 235 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $302,990 Active 234 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $302,990 Active 233 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $302,990 Active 232 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $302,990 Active 231 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $302,990 Active 230 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $302,990 Active 229 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $302,990 Active 228 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $302,990 Active 225 DOM
-
2026-07-29days on market $302,990 Active 223 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $302,990 Active 221 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $302,990 Active 219 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $302,990 Active 218 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $302,990 Active 217 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $30,529
- − Mortgage interest
- −$20,778
- − Property taxes
- −$5,564
- − Insurance
- −$1,855
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,442
- − Management
- −$2,442
- − Depreciation
- −$10,791
- Taxable loss
- −$13,344
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$3,203
- After-tax cash flow
- $-3,442/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos
80/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $10,310–$30,930 screening
The Palmer Plan home in Navarre, FL is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Fresh paint and landscaping improvements can significantly enhance its curb appeal and increase its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint the exterior walls and trim — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
- Both Clean and maintain HVAC condensers — A clean and well-maintained HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and reduce utility costs, which can be a selling point for both buyers and renters. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
C
Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
West Navarre Intermediate School
A-
FL #345/2,144
Nat'l #3,382/41,679
Middle
Woodlawn Beach Middle School
B+
FL #105/571
Nat'l #1,362/14,009
High
Navarre High School
C-
FL #146/667
Nat'l #4,818/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Santa Rosa
- NCES district ID
- 1201650
- Math proficiency
- 63% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 60% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $58,161
- Composite
- 53.12/100
- National rank
- #1511
- State rank
- #8 of 73 in FL
B
Composite livability gradescore 70/100
Livability — Navarre
- Score
- 70/100
- State rank
- #435
- US rank
- #7790
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living B
Crime A-
Employment A
Housing A+
Health & safety C-
User ratings A
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Navarre, FL
- County
- Santa Rosa County · 195,978 people
- City population
- 43,883
- Metro
- Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 43,883
- Household income
- $105,551
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 10% of renters
Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 195,978 people
- By 2030
- 209,782 · +7.0%
- By 2040
- 235,293 · +20.1%
- By 2050
- 256,408 · +30.8%
- By 2075
- 298,074 · +52.1%
- By 2100
- 303,216 · +54.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (75%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 75% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 92% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -105.87%
- Current HPI
- 298.6821
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 2.74%
- Metro
- Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…