407 Potato Rd · Plainfield, PA 17015

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1973 0.96 ac lot $148/sqft · 10% above area Est $161k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Versatile 4-bedroom, 1-bath ranch situated on a scenic 1-acre creekfront lot with strong income-producing potential. The property features a screened-in porch overlooking the Conodoguinet Creek, offering peaceful water views and a unique setting. In addition to the main home, the property includes two mobile homes currently leased, generating approximately $1,250/month in rental income, providing immediate cash flow potential. With multiple income streams already in place, this is a rare opportunity for investors or buyers looking to offset their living expenses. Whether you’re looking to expand your investment portfolio, explore short-term rental potential, or create a personalized waterfront retreat, this property offers flexibility, space, and upside potential. Due to property type and configuration, financing options may be limited. Cash or portfolio lending may be best suited.

Key facts

• Cash flow potential
• Water views
• Creekfront lot

Tags

• CREEKFRONT LOT
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• WATER VIEWS
• RENTAL INCOME
• CASH FLOW POTENTIAL
• SHORT-TERM RENTAL POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (9.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,588 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Big Spring SD (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #162 of 539 in PA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $175k implies a 1844% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,306 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.13%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,019
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 8.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-34,122
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-36,430
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17015

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,919/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,996

Max offer price $158,306

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $175,000 Pending 47 DOM
2. 2026-05-13
   price $175,000 900-char remark

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   Versatile 4-bedroom, 1-bath ranch situated on a scenic 1-acre creekfront lot with strong income-producing potential. The property features a screened-in porch overlooking the Conodoguinet Creek, offering peaceful water views and a unique setting. In addition to the main home, the property includes two mobile homes currently leased, generating approximately $1,250/month in rental income, providing immediate cash flow potential. With multiple income streams already in place, this is a rare opportunity for investors or buyers looking to offset their living expenses. Whether you’re looking to expand your investment portfolio, explore short-term rental potential, or create a personalized waterfront retreat, this property offers flexibility, space, and upside potential. Due to property type and configuration, financing options may be limited. Cash or portfolio lending may be best suited.

3. 2026-05-13
   price $175,000 900-char remark

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   Versatile 4-bedroom, 1-bath ranch situated on a scenic 1-acre creekfront lot with strong income-producing potential. The property features a screened-in porch overlooking the Conodoguinet Creek, offering peaceful water views and a unique setting. In addition to the main home, the property includes two mobile homes currently leased, generating approximately $1,250/month in rental income, providing immediate cash flow potential. With multiple income streams already in place, this is a rare opportunity for investors or buyers looking to offset their living expenses. Whether you’re looking to expand your investment portfolio, explore short-term rental potential, or create a personalized waterfront retreat, this property offers flexibility, space, and upside potential. Due to property type and configuration, financing options may be limited. Cash or portfolio lending may be best suited.

4. 2026-04-14
   listed $190,000 Active 900-char remark

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   Versatile 4-bedroom, 1-bath ranch situated on a scenic 1-acre creekfront lot with strong income-producing potential. The property features a screened-in porch overlooking the Conodoguinet Creek, offering peaceful water views and a unique setting. In addition to the main home, the property includes two mobile homes currently leased, generating approximately $1,250/month in rental income, providing immediate cash flow potential. With multiple income streams already in place, this is a rare opportunity for investors or buyers looking to offset their living expenses. Whether you’re looking to expand your investment portfolio, explore short-term rental potential, or create a personalized waterfront retreat, this property offers flexibility, space, and upside potential. Due to property type and configuration, financing options may be limited. Cash or portfolio lending may be best suited.

5. 2026-04-12
   listed $190,000 Active 900-char remark

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   Versatile 4-bedroom, 1-bath ranch situated on a scenic 1-acre creekfront lot with strong income-producing potential. The property features a screened-in porch overlooking the Conodoguinet Creek, offering peaceful water views and a unique setting. In addition to the main home, the property includes two mobile homes currently leased, generating approximately $1,250/month in rental income, providing immediate cash flow potential. With multiple income streams already in place, this is a rare opportunity for investors or buyers looking to offset their living expenses. Whether you’re looking to expand your investment portfolio, explore short-term rental potential, or create a personalized waterfront retreat, this property offers flexibility, space, and upside potential. Due to property type and configuration, financing options may be limited. Cash or portfolio lending may be best suited.

6. 1980-08-21
   soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,919 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,342 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$423/yr (+$35/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,919
• − Insurance: −$5,994
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,802
• − Management: −$1,802
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,889
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$933
• After-tax cash flow: $-201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Spring SD
• NCES district ID: 4203660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,941
• Composite: 43.77/100
• National rank: #2942
• State rank: #162 of 539 in PA

Livability — Plainfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1588
• US rank: #21404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• City population: 283
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,385
• Household income: $86,981
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.66%
• Current HPI: 265.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1844.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1980-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,919 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.