1231 Pennsylvania Ave · Miami Beach, FL
Flood risk 9/10 · Severe
- FEMA flood zone
- AE
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,737 – $8,500
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 101°F)
- 8 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 32 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Cash flow +12.1/30.0
- 1% rule +7.2/10.0
- Schools +4.1/10.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Appreciation +3.9/10.0
- Condition / age +3.8/5.0
- DSCR +3.6/10.0
- Rent growth +2.4/5.0
$259,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Rare opportunity in the heart of South Beach! Bright and spacious 1 bedroom with den, assigned parking, in-unit washer & dryer, and a full kitchen — a major advantage compared to many South Beach studios with only kitchenettes. Functional layout with flexible den space ideal for a home office or guest area. Just blocks from Lincoln Road, Española Way, Flamingo Park, and only minutes from the beach. Enjoy being surrounded by top restaurants, cafés, shopping, nightlife, and everything that makes Miami Beach living unique.
Key facts
- Full kitchen
- In-unit washer
- Assigned parking
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $259k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-484 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (27.0% below list).
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
- Recommended offer: $189k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 0.6% in Miami Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 80/100 on livability (#108 in FL, #1,672 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities D-, cost of living F.
- Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Miami Beach Feinberg/Fisher K-8 (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 842 students, 61% FRL); Miami Beach Nautilus Middle School (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 918 students, 44% FRL); Miami Beach Senior High School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 2,175 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 64% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 1748 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 50d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $3,166/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 16% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.22% ✓
- Cap rate
- 6.03%
- Cash-on-cash
- -0.94%
- DSCR
- 0.96
- GRM
- 6.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $377,293
- List price
- $259,000
- Delta
- -31.35%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 2 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 740 Meridian Ave #11 | 0.42mi | 2/2.0 (+1) | 671 (-1%) | 0mo | $370,000 | $551 | 70 |
| 500 14th St #101 | 0.13mi | 1/1.0 | 543 (-20%) | 0mo | $165,000 | $304 | 69 |
| 1100 West Ave #1101 | 0.59mi | 1/1.0 | 700 (+4%) | 0mo | $360,000 | $514 | 66 |
| 1601 West Ave #101 | 0.65mi | 1/1.0 | 691 (+2%) | 0mo | $400,000 | $579 | 65 |
| 1025 Alton Rd #602 | 0.46mi | 1/1.5 | 730 (+8%) | 1mo | $325,000 | $445 | 62 |
| 750 Collins Ave #306 | 0.39mi | 2/1.0 (+1) | 612 (-9%) | 1mo | $343,000 | $560 | 61 |
| 1200 West Ave #1101 | 0.57mi | 1/1.0 | 609 (-10%) | 0mo | $275,000 | $452 | 57 |
| 1500 Bay Rd Unit 1244s | 0.69mi | 1/1.0 | 731 (+8%) | 0mo | $508,000 | $695 | 54 |
| 1500 Bay Rd #364 | 0.71mi | 1/1.0 | 731 (+8%) | 0mo | $510,000 | $698 | 53 |
| 225 Collins Ave Unit 5J | 0.82mi | 1/1.0 | 723 (+7%) | 1mo | $685,000 | $947 | 53 |
| 2555 Collins Ave #1714 | 1.35mi | 1/1.5 | 798 (+18%) | 0mo | $850,000 | $1,065 | 38 |
| 1800 Sunset Harbour Dr #2109 | 1.03mi | 1/1.5 | 800 (+18%) | 1mo | $698,000 | $873 | 37 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-2.19% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -28.3%
- Equity multiple
- 0.00×
- Total profit
- $-72,358
- Equity at exit
- $48,092
- IRR
- -37.3%
- Equity multiple
- -0.76×
- Total profit
- $-127,479
- Equity at exit
- $39,013
Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 11 active · 5 under contract
- Median asking
- $2,600 ($4/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 1 d
- This list price
- 100% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +14258.8% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 33139
- Home prices YoY
- -0.8%
- Rents YoY
- -0.4%
- Active inventory
- 1748
- Price-to-rent
- 6.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,166 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,358
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$324 /mo · $3,885/yr
- Insurance
- −$108
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
- HOA
- −$768
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$665
- Net cashflow
- $-484
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-305 | -5% $-394 | +0% $-484 | +5% $-573 | +10% $-663 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-734 | -5% $-609 | +0% $-484 | +5% $-359 | +10% $-234 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-353 | -0.5pp $-418 | base $-484 | +0.5pp $-551 | +1.0pp $-619 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $64,750
- Closing costs
- $7,770
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 5 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1602 Meridian Ave Miami Beach, FL | 4.0 | 1.0–3.0 | 917 | $6,932 | $7.56 | 110d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 1508 Bay Rd Miami Beach, FL | 5.0 | 1.0–5.0 | 2535 | $7,236 | $2.85 | 0d | 42 | 0.69mi |
| 2201 Collins Ave Miami Beach, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1121 | $22,000 | $19.62 | 120d | 2 | 1.10mi |
| 2201 Collins Ave Miami Beach, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.5 | 1232 | $19,000 | $15.42 | 36d | 3 | 1.10mi |
| 2201 Collins Ave Miami Beach, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.5 | 1232 | $21,500 | $17.45 | 50d | 3 | 1.10mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Monthly association fee of $768
Exterior
- Parking
- Driveway1 covered parking space1-car garage
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewer
- Home design
- Single-storyFaces westEffective year built
- Construction
- Block constructionConcrete roof
- Exterior features
- BalconyOpen balcony/porch
Interior
- Kitchen
- Gas rangeRefrigerator
- Bedrooms
- Bedroom on main level
- Flooring
- Ceramic tileHardwoodWood
- Bathrooms
- 1 full bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Electric coolingCeiling fan(s)
- Interior features
- Dining areaDenSecond floor entryBathtub with showerBedroom on main level
- Laundry & utility
- Gas water heater
HOA detail $768/mo · $9,216/yr
- Likely covers
- parking
Listing history 1 events
-
2026-05-20$259,000 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥101°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $37,987
- − Mortgage interest
- −$14,508
- − Property taxes
- −$3,885
- − Insurance
- −$6,414
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,039
- − Management
- −$3,039
- − HOA
- −$9,216
- − Depreciation
- −$7,535
- Taxable loss
- −$9,648
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,315
- After-tax cash flow
- $-3,488/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This property is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to the kitchen and bathroom. It offers a great investment opportunity with a tenant in place and immediate rental income.
Repairs flagged
- Moderate kitchen cabinets — Appears dated and could benefit from an update.
- Moderate bathroom fixtures — Appears dated and could benefit from an update.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Kitchen renovation — Updating the kitchen will enhance both resale and rental value. ↑
- Both Bathroom renovation — Updating the bathroom will enhance both resale and rental value. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Miami-Dade
- NCES district ID
- 1200390
- Math proficiency
- 45% ▼ -16.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 54% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $43,928
- Composite
- 41.76/100
- National rank
- #3397
- State rank
- #40 of 73 in FL
Livability — Miami Beach
- Score
- 80/100
- State rank
- #108
- US rank
- #1672
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Miami Beach, FL
- County
- Miami-Dade County · 3,126,439 people
- City population
- 90,533
- Metro
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 33,753
- Household income
- $69,793
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 16% of renters
Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 3,126,439 people
- By 2030
- 3,325,765 · +6.4%
- By 2040
- 3,697,561 · +18.3%
- By 2050
- 4,012,134 · +28.3%
- By 2075
- 4,605,612 · +47.3%
- By 2100
- 4,866,598 · +55.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 51% White 40% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 15% Salvadoran 3%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 56% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
- Languages at home
- 37% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade
- 2024 margin
- R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -2.19%
- Current HPI
- 277.9321
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -0.36%
- Metro
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
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| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Price history
2 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-28 Listing Removed — MARMLS
- 2026-05-20 Listed $259,000 MARMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…