156 E Harmons Ferry Rd · Utica, KY 42376

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1976 1.55 ac lot Est $256k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NOT A MOBILE HOME! Affordable country living in Liva, KY! 1.55 acres right on Daviess/McLean County line. Newer roof, HVAC, windows, carpet. 2 decks, 1 car detached garage plus out buildings. Great garden area too! Minutes from gas station and Dollar Store! Plat on file. Occupied - call for an appointment to see inside.

Key facts

• Storage building
• Detached garage
• 1.55 acre lot

Tags

• APPROXIMATELY 1.55 ACRES
• DETACHED GARAGE
• STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built with standard foundation
• Exterior features: Outbuilding; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $490 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#400 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Daviess County (suburban): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #43 of 165 in KY (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 226 units permitted in Daviess County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Daviess County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $117,390 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.27%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,816
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
185 E Harmons Ferry Rd	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,232 (-5%)	2mo	$243,900	$198	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $10,293
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $49,145
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42376

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,704 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,516/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,084

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $563	-5% $526	+0% $490	+5% $453	+10% $417
Rent	-10% $355	-5% $422	+0% $490	+5% $557	+10% $624
Rate	-1.0pp $555	-0.5pp $523	base $490	+0.5pp $456	+1.0pp $422

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $129,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $129,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $129,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $129,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-04-28
    price $129,000
12. 2026-04-23
    price $141,500
13. 2026-04-15
    status Active
14. 2026-04-08
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2026-03-23
    price $144,000
16. 2026-03-11
    listed $149,000 Active
17. 2025-01-17
    soldstatus $398,800
18. 2024-08-19
    soldstatus $140,000
19. 2016-03-07
    soldstatus $59,000 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    NOT A MOBILE HOME! Affordable country living in Liva, KY! 1.55 acres right on Daviess/McLean County line. Newer roof, HVAC, windows, carpet. 2 decks, 1 car detached garage plus out buildings. Great garden area too! Minutes from gas station and Dollar Store! Plat on file. Occupied - call for an appointment to see inside.

20. 2016-01-13
    listed $69,900 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    NOT A MOBILE HOME! Affordable country living in Liva, KY! 1.55 acres right on Daviess/McLean County line. Newer roof, HVAC, windows, carpet. 2 decks, 1 car detached garage plus out buildings. Great garden area too! Minutes from gas station and Dollar Store! Plat on file. Occupied - call for an appointment to see inside.

21. 2013-06-25
    soldstatus $37,000
22. 2013-06-24
    soldstatus $37,000 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    A real deal! 2 lots, 1.5 acres. Needs some work. 3 out buildings include 1 car det. garage. Right off hwy 431, behind the old Barmet land. Sits gently on a hill. Garden area, newer roof and CA and Heat. McClean county but on Daviess County line. Private see no neighbors.

23. 2013-05-20
    listed $39,900 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    A real deal! 2 lots, 1.5 acres. Needs some work. 3 out buildings include 1 car det. garage. Right off hwy 431, behind the old Barmet land. Sits gently on a hill. Garden area, newer roof and CA and Heat. McClean county but on Daviess County line. Private see no neighbors.

24. 1997-05-01
    soldstatus $47,500
25. 1993-06-01
    soldstatus $43,755

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,516 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,516 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,451
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,516
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,636
• − Management: −$1,636
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $4,039
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$969
• After-tax cash flow: $4,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Daviess County
• NCES district ID: 2101470
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $52,303
• Composite: 32.2/100
• National rank: #5778
• State rank: #43 of 165 in KY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #400
• US rank: #19155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,800

Population outlook (Daviess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 103,810 people
• By 2030: 105,722 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 108,731 · +4.7%
• By 2050: 110,295 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 113,056 · +8.9%
• By 2100: 106,257 · +2.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea

Political lean MEDSL · Daviess

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.9) · D 33.3% · R 65.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.1pp · 2024: -31.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.9 2020: R+27.9 2016: R+32.2 2012: R+21.1 2008: R+10.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.02%
• Current HPI: 229.5493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+194.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $129,000 RASKMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $141,500 RASKMLS
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — RASKMLS
• 2026-04-08 Contingent — RASKMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $144,000 RASKMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $149,000 RASKMLS
• 2025-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $398,800 Public Records
• 2024-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-07 Sold (MLS) $59,000 GORAMLS
• 2016-01-13 Listed $69,900 GORAMLS
• 2013-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 2013-06-24 Sold (MLS) $37,000 GORAMLS
• 2013-05-20 Listed $39,900 GORAMLS
• 1997-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 1993-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,755 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,516 · +105.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.