1390 Waggoners Gap Rd · Carlisle, PA 17013

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1954 3.22 ac lot $114/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Conveniently located estate sale offering strong potential. Property is sold AS‑IS; seller will make no repairs. Seller reserves the right to remove contents and/or leave personal property behind. Disclosure completed by the Executor to the best of their knowledge. Ideal for buyers seeking a major renovation or tear‑down opportunity.

Key facts

• 3.22 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1954

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership: Fee simple; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Private driveway with 3 parking spaces (3 total garage/parking spaces counted)
• Utilities: 100 Amp electric service; Well water; On-site septic
• Home design: Detached structure; Estimated year built
• Construction: Concrete and stick-built construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Outbuilding(s); Rear yard; Property backs to trees; Not in a development

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Wood burn stove and other heating; Heating fuel: wood and coal; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Basement with interior access; 6 total rooms; Major rehab needed (property condition)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.7% in Carlisle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#297 in PA, #2,632 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Carlisle Area SD (urban): math 33% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #277 of 539 in PA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wilson Ms (math 20% / reading 53%, grade F, #307 of 512 statewide, top 61%, 577 students, 52% FRL); Carlisle Area Hs (math 70% / reading 75%, grade B+, #37 of 437 statewide, top 8%, 1,578 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 30% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $150k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.09%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,226
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -55.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1391 Waggoners Gap Rd	0.03mi	2/1.5	1,212 (-8%)	18mo	$149,900	$124	68
110 Old Gap Rd	0.34mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,318 (+0%)	18mo	$329,900	$250	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,640
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-47
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17013

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,533 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,204/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,307

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1142 Redwood Dr Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.5	1344	$1,495	$1.11	23d	1	0.94mi
1838 Mary Ln Carlisle, PA	3.0	1.5	1523	$800	$0.53	14d	1	1.25mi
525 3rd St Carlisle, PA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,497	$1.58	23d	1	1.31mi
646 N College St Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,795	$1.20	14d	1	1.42mi
238 C St Carlisle, PA	3.0	1.0	1452	$1,452	$1.00	14d	2	1.45mi
270 B St Carlisle, PA	2.0–3.0	1.0	1028	$1,289	$1.25	14d	3	1.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $150,000 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $150,000 Active 335-char remark
3. 2006-12-20
   soldstatus $137,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,204 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,287 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 3.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,204
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,472
• − Management: −$1,472
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$268
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$64
• After-tax cash flow: $2,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlisle Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4205010
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,334
• Composite: 38.23/100
• National rank: #4247
• State rank: #277 of 539 in PA

Livability — Carlisle

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #297
• US rank: #2632

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• City population: 62,898
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,513
• Household income: $71,042
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1444.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.48%
• Current HPI: 247.337
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-27.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Sold (MLS) $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-29 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $137,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,204 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.