945 Cedar St · Poplar Bluff, MO 63901

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 940 sqft · Other public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1922 5,227 sqft lot $59/sqft · at area comps Est $81k · 32% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this remodeled home! Full, unfinished basement. All less than $60,000! This home will sell quickly.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1922
• Listed 142 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($973 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 4.4% in Poplar Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#143 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Poplar Bluff R-I (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #127 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Poplar Bluff Kindergarten Ctr. (375 students, 99% FRL); Poplar Bluff Middle School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #215 of 391 statewide, top 56%, 1,018 students, 74% FRL); Poplar Bluff High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #356 of 521 statewide, top 71%, 1,504 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butler County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $55k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.84%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,304
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -32.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $18,737
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $51,882
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63901

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $973 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $275/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $423

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $465	-5% $450	+0% $434	+5% $419	+10% $403
Rent	-10% $357	-5% $396	+0% $434	+5% $473	+10% $511
Rate	-1.0pp $462	-0.5pp $448	base $434	+0.5pp $420	+1.0pp $406

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-02-19
    status Active 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    Take a look at this remodeled home! Full, unfinished basement. All less than $60,000! This home will sell quickly.

17. 2026-02-06
    historical Active Under Contract 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    Take a look at this remodeled home! Full, unfinished basement. All less than $60,000! This home will sell quickly.

18. 2026-01-30
    listed $55,000 Active 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    Take a look at this remodeled home! Full, unfinished basement. All less than $60,000! This home will sell quickly.

19. 2025-09-03
    price $58,000
20. 2025-07-30
    price $60,000
21. 2025-06-16
    listed $69,900 Active
22. 2013-12-02
    soldstatus $20,000
23. 2000-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $275 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $534 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$259/yr (+$22/mo · 94.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$275
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$934
• − Management: −$934
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $4,576
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,098
• After-tax cash flow: $4,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poplar Bluff R-I
• NCES district ID: 2925450
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,761
• Composite: 35.17/100
• National rank: #5001
• State rank: #127 of 324 in MO

Livability — Poplar Bluff

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #8135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poplar Bluff, MO
• City population: 34,920
• Population (ZIP): 34,920

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,648 people
• By 2030: 42,329 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 41,498 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 40,308 · -5.5%
• By 2075: 36,168 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 28,893 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.7% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.3 2016: R+61.6 2012: R+46.7 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.64%
• Current HPI: 175.3008
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+175.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Listed $55,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $58,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $60,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-16 Listed $69,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2000-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $275 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.