16486 W Quinlin Trl · Three Points, AZ 85735

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2003 4.17 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home On The Range! This Lovely Home Sits On Over 4 Acres Of Private Land, With A Storage Shed & Shipping Container Included With The Sale. Enjoy Breathtaking Views On Your Very Own Ranch, That Already Has Gardening Beds & Animal Pens! The House Itself Is Open, Spacious, And Has Large Bedrooms (With A Split-Floorplan). The Owners Installed Security Cameras, And Are Currently Using The Giant Carport As A Fenced-In Dog Area (But It Can Easily Be Converted Back To A Carport). One Of The Nicest Properties In Three Points, And One Of The Few Properties Left Under $250,000!

Key facts

• Shipping container
• Security cameras
• Storage shed

Tags

• OVER 4 ACRES
• STORAGE SHED
• SHIPPING CONTAINER
• GARDENING BEDS
• ANIMAL PENS
• SECURITY CAMERAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Three Points - RH
• HOA & community: Horses allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car carport; Oversized parking
• Security: Closed-circuit cameras; Wrought iron security door
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/deck; Deck; Patio; Kennel/dog run; Storage shed(s); Wood, wire and field fencing; Shrubs and front sprinklers; Dirt road access; Owner-maintained road; East/West and North/South exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Mini-split heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; High ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.7% in Three Points — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#286 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Altar Valley Elementary District (4418) (rural): math 15% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #202 of 249 in AZ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Robles Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 389 students, 79% FRL); Altar Valley Middle School (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 196 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,036 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.30%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $93,184
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16045 W Quinlin Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	2mo	$80,000	$64	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-29,897
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-17,646
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85735

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $876/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,859

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $167	+0% $103	+5% $40	+10% $-24
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $25	+0% $103	+5% $182	+10% $261
Rate	-1.0pp $217	-0.5pp $161	base $103	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $-14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   historical Active Contingent
3. 2026-04-01
   listed $225,000 Active
4. 2026-02-18
   historical
5. 2026-01-23
   status Active
6. 2026-01-13
   historical
7. 2025-11-17
   listed $240,000 Active
8. 2025-11-08
   historical
9. 2025-10-01
   price $243,000
10. 2025-08-28
    listed $250,000 Active
11. 2023-06-01
    soldstatus $220,000 Closed
12. 2023-06-01
    soldstatus $220,000
13. 2023-05-19
    status Pending
14. 2023-04-23
    historical Active Contingent
15. 2022-11-08
    listed $230,000 Active
16. 2022-08-31
    historical Active Contingent
17. 2022-08-31
    historical
18. 2022-08-24
    price $175,000
19. 2022-07-22
    listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $876 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,485 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$609/yr (+$51/mo · 69.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$876
• − Insurance: −$2,592
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,911
• − Management: −$1,911
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$613
• After-tax cash flow: $1,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Altar Valley Elementary District (4418)
• NCES district ID: 0404770
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,645
• Composite: 14.52/100
• National rank: #9420
• State rank: #202 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Three Points

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #24371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Three Points, AZ
• City population: 10,893
• Population (ZIP): 10,893

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 41% Two or more races 19% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.03%
• Current HPI: 301.1413
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+18.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-01 Listed $225,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-23 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-17 Listed $240,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-08 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $243,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-28 Listed $250,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-01 Sold (MLS) $220,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-05-19 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2023-04-23 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-11-08 Listed $230,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-08-31 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-08-31 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2022-08-24 Price Changed $175,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-07-22 Listed $190,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $876 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.