28241 Hickman Cannery Rd · Denton, MD 21629

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,436 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1885 7,500 sqft lot $160/sqft · 16% below area Est $274k · 16% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 28241 Hickman Cannery Road, a refreshed two-story home in Denton, MD, blending classic charm with modern, low-maintenance updates. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout both levels, creating a cohesive, move-in-ready feel. The main level offers a bright living room, a flexible den ideal for a home office or family room, a spacious kitchen, dedicated laundry room, and a full bathroom. Upstairs, you’ll find three well-sized bedrooms, along with a large centrally located full bath. Ideally positioned for Eastern Shore living, the home is just minutes from Martinak State Park and Tuckahoe State Park, plus downtown Denton dining, arts, and shopping. Located within the Caroline County Public Schools district, this property delivers a practical floor plan, modern finishes, and convenient access to everyday amenities—an efficient win for buyers seeking comfort, connectivity, and value.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Spacious kitchen
• Bright living room

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• FLEXIBLE DEN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• FULL BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.6% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#260 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, schools D-.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.50%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,306
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -16.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8296 Hickman Rd	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,328 (-8%)	18mo	$215,000	$162	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $137,182
• Equity at exit: $207,202

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.12×
• Total profit: $394,438
• Equity at exit: $446,839

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21629

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,661/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,823

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $230,000 Pending 129 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $230,000 Active Under Contract 129 DOM
3. 2026-04-28
   price $254,900 919-char remark

   Show marketing remark (919 chars)

   Welcome to 28241 Hickman Cannery Road, a refreshed two-story home in Denton, MD, blending classic charm with modern, low-maintenance updates. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout both levels, creating a cohesive, move-in-ready feel. The main level offers a bright living room, a flexible den ideal for a home office or family room, a spacious kitchen, dedicated laundry room, and a full bathroom. Upstairs, you’ll find three well-sized bedrooms, along with a large centrally located full bath. Ideally positioned for Eastern Shore living, the home is just minutes from Martinak State Park and Tuckahoe State Park, plus downtown Denton dining, arts, and shopping. Located within the Caroline County Public Schools district, this property delivers a practical floor plan, modern finishes, and convenient access to everyday amenities—an efficient win for buyers seeking comfort, connectivity, and value.

4. 2026-04-13
   price $264,900 919-char remark

   Show marketing remark (919 chars)

   Welcome to 28241 Hickman Cannery Road, a refreshed two-story home in Denton, MD, blending classic charm with modern, low-maintenance updates. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout both levels, creating a cohesive, move-in-ready feel. The main level offers a bright living room, a flexible den ideal for a home office or family room, a spacious kitchen, dedicated laundry room, and a full bathroom. Upstairs, you’ll find three well-sized bedrooms, along with a large centrally located full bath. Ideally positioned for Eastern Shore living, the home is just minutes from Martinak State Park and Tuckahoe State Park, plus downtown Denton dining, arts, and shopping. Located within the Caroline County Public Schools district, this property delivers a practical floor plan, modern finishes, and convenient access to everyday amenities—an efficient win for buyers seeking comfort, connectivity, and value.

5. 2026-03-30
   price $269,900 919-char remark

   Show marketing remark (919 chars)

   Welcome to 28241 Hickman Cannery Road, a refreshed two-story home in Denton, MD, blending classic charm with modern, low-maintenance updates. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout both levels, creating a cohesive, move-in-ready feel. The main level offers a bright living room, a flexible den ideal for a home office or family room, a spacious kitchen, dedicated laundry room, and a full bathroom. Upstairs, you’ll find three well-sized bedrooms, along with a large centrally located full bath. Ideally positioned for Eastern Shore living, the home is just minutes from Martinak State Park and Tuckahoe State Park, plus downtown Denton dining, arts, and shopping. Located within the Caroline County Public Schools district, this property delivers a practical floor plan, modern finishes, and convenient access to everyday amenities—an efficient win for buyers seeking comfort, connectivity, and value.

6. 2026-03-16
   price $274,900 919-char remark

   Show marketing remark (919 chars)

   Welcome to 28241 Hickman Cannery Road, a refreshed two-story home in Denton, MD, blending classic charm with modern, low-maintenance updates. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout both levels, creating a cohesive, move-in-ready feel. The main level offers a bright living room, a flexible den ideal for a home office or family room, a spacious kitchen, dedicated laundry room, and a full bathroom. Upstairs, you’ll find three well-sized bedrooms, along with a large centrally located full bath. Ideally positioned for Eastern Shore living, the home is just minutes from Martinak State Park and Tuckahoe State Park, plus downtown Denton dining, arts, and shopping. Located within the Caroline County Public Schools district, this property delivers a practical floor plan, modern finishes, and convenient access to everyday amenities—an efficient win for buyers seeking comfort, connectivity, and value.

7. 2026-01-21
   listed $279,900 Active 919-char remark

   Show marketing remark (919 chars)

   Welcome to 28241 Hickman Cannery Road, a refreshed two-story home in Denton, MD, blending classic charm with modern, low-maintenance updates. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout both levels, creating a cohesive, move-in-ready feel. The main level offers a bright living room, a flexible den ideal for a home office or family room, a spacious kitchen, dedicated laundry room, and a full bathroom. Upstairs, you’ll find three well-sized bedrooms, along with a large centrally located full bath. Ideally positioned for Eastern Shore living, the home is just minutes from Martinak State Park and Tuckahoe State Park, plus downtown Denton dining, arts, and shopping. Located within the Caroline County Public Schools district, this property delivers a practical floor plan, modern finishes, and convenient access to everyday amenities—an efficient win for buyers seeking comfort, connectivity, and value.

8. 2021-10-12
   soldstatus $175,000
9. 2021-09-30
   soldstatus $175,000 Closed 700-char remark

   Show marketing remark (700 chars)

   * * * * $20,000 PRICE REDUCTION * * * * DON'T MISS OUT! Lovely renovated 3 BR , 2 Bath Colonial Farm House with spacious country eat-in kitchen, large dining room family room and separate laundry room with front load washer and dryer. Turn key, sparkling, move-in condition! Professionally painted and all new flooring throughout the home. New HVAC installed in 2019 and new septic installation August 2018! Don't miss this diamond in the rough with it's quaint country setting, mature shade trees and spacious yard. .. .. . * * * * Home Warranty and existing transferable Termite warranty through Terminix! * * * Seller, upon request, will provide septic and well inspection.

10. 2021-08-16
    historical Active Under Contract 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    * * * * $20,000 PRICE REDUCTION * * * * DON'T MISS OUT! Lovely renovated 3 BR , 2 Bath Colonial Farm House with spacious country eat-in kitchen, large dining room family room and separate laundry room with front load washer and dryer. Turn key, sparkling, move-in condition! Professionally painted and all new flooring throughout the home. New HVAC installed in 2019 and new septic installation August 2018! Don't miss this diamond in the rough with it's quaint country setting, mature shade trees and spacious yard. .. .. . * * * * Home Warranty and existing transferable Termite warranty through Terminix! * * * Seller, upon request, will provide septic and well inspection.

11. 2021-08-12
    price $174,500 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    * * * * $20,000 PRICE REDUCTION * * * * DON'T MISS OUT! Lovely renovated 3 BR , 2 Bath Colonial Farm House with spacious country eat-in kitchen, large dining room family room and separate laundry room with front load washer and dryer. Turn key, sparkling, move-in condition! Professionally painted and all new flooring throughout the home. New HVAC installed in 2019 and new septic installation August 2018! Don't miss this diamond in the rough with it's quaint country setting, mature shade trees and spacious yard. .. .. . * * * * Home Warranty and existing transferable Termite warranty through Terminix! * * * Seller, upon request, will provide septic and well inspection.

12. 2021-07-30
    listed $194,500 Active 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    * * * * $20,000 PRICE REDUCTION * * * * DON'T MISS OUT! Lovely renovated 3 BR , 2 Bath Colonial Farm House with spacious country eat-in kitchen, large dining room family room and separate laundry room with front load washer and dryer. Turn key, sparkling, move-in condition! Professionally painted and all new flooring throughout the home. New HVAC installed in 2019 and new septic installation August 2018! Don't miss this diamond in the rough with it's quaint country setting, mature shade trees and spacious yard. .. .. . * * * * Home Warranty and existing transferable Termite warranty through Terminix! * * * Seller, upon request, will provide septic and well inspection.

13. 2010-07-06
    historical Withdrawn
14. 2010-07-06
    historical
15. 2010-02-23
    listed Active
16. 2010-02-23
    listed $179,000
17. 2008-03-06
    soldstatus $172,742
18. 2007-10-03
    historical
19. 2007-08-16
    listed
20. 2006-06-28
    soldstatus $175,000
21. 2006-05-25
    soldstatus $175,000
22. 2006-04-11
    historical
23. 2005-09-16
    listed $187,500
24. 2005-03-31
    soldstatus $22,000
25. 2005-02-08
    historical
26. 2004-09-27
    listed $28,500
27. 2003-11-10
    soldstatus $14,900
28. 2003-10-09
    historical
29. 2003-07-09
    listed $14,900
30. 1995-05-26
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,661 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,084 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$423/yr (+$35/mo · 25.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,661
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,979
• − Management: −$1,979
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$1,607
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$386
• After-tax cash flow: $2,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400180
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,076
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8823
• State rank: #17 of 24 in MD

Livability — Denton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #13277

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,285
• Population (ZIP): 10,285

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,205 people
• By 2030: 30,204 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 27,866 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 25,342 · -18.8%
• By 2075: 20,554 · -34.1%
• By 2100: 17,415 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 29.9% · R 67.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.0pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+32.9 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+23.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.95%
• Current HPI: 356.683
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+810.4% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $254,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $264,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $269,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $274,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $279,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-30 Sold (MLS) $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-16 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-12 Price Changed $174,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-30 Listed $194,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-07-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-07-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-02-23 Listed — MRIS
• 2010-02-23 Listed $179,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $172,742 Public Records
• 2007-10-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-08-16 Listed — MRIS
• 2006-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-25 Sold (MLS) $175,000 MRIS
• 2006-04-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-09-16 Listed $187,500 MRIS
• 2005-03-31 Sold (MLS) $22,000 MRIS
• 2005-02-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-09-27 Listed $28,500 MRIS
• 2003-11-10 Sold (MLS) $14,900 MRIS
• 2003-10-09 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-07-09 Listed $14,900 MRIS
• 1995-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,661 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.