415 S Park St · Sesser, IL 62884

$32,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily · 183 Days on market

Built 1920 6,969 sqft lot $37/sqft · 62% below area ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

This home 3 bedroom, 1 baht home is located on a corner lot with an attached garage. This home needs TLC and will be sold as-is.

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $33k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($890 rent vs $33k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#722 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Sesser-Valier CUSD 196 (rural): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #389 of 620 in IL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($227 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $28,952 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.73%
• DSCR: 3.39
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,629
• List price: $32,900
• Delta: -62.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
402 S Clay St	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	882 (-2%)	10mo	$50,000	$57	82
402 S Clay St	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	882 (-2%)	10mo	$50,000	$57	82
501 W Murray St	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	916 (+2%)	13mo	$124,900	$136	74
209 W Florence St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	868 (-3%)	3mo	$52,000	$60	68
508 S Park St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+12%)	8mo	$100,000	$100	66
508 S Park St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+12%)	8mo	$100,000	$100	66
4990 Murray St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+9%)	13mo	$35,000	$36	50
115 E Callie St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (+12%)	8mo	$49,900	$50	43
115 E Callie St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (+12%)	8mo	$49,900	$50	43
609 N Locust St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	964 (+8%)	12mo	$31,075	$32	41
609 N Locust St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	964 (+8%)	12mo	$31,075	$32	41
610 N Elm St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	765 (-15%)	18mo	$44,900	$59	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.45×
• Total profit: $31,797
• Equity at exit: $16,403

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.10×
• Total profit: $74,654
• Equity at exit: $26,610

Cash invested: $9,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62884

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $890 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,255/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $368

Max offer price $32,900

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,225
• Closing costs: $987
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,900 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,900 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,900 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,900 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $32,900 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $32,900 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $32,900 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $32,900 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $32,900 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $32,900 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $32,900 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $32,900 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $32,900 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,900 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,900 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $32,900
17. 2026-04-27
    price $33,900
18. 2026-04-13
    price $34,900
19. 2026-03-30
    price $35,900
20. 2026-03-04
    price $37,900
21. 2026-01-06
    historical
22. 2025-09-04
    price
23. 2025-08-03
    price
24. 2025-06-04
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,255 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,255 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,843
• − Property taxes: −$1,255
• − Insurance: −$164
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$855
• − Management: −$855
• − Depreciation: −$957
• Taxable income: $4,754
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,141
• After-tax cash flow: $3,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sesser-Valier CUSD 196
• NCES district ID: 1735940
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,039
• Composite: 19.31/100
• National rank: #8795
• State rank: #389 of 620 in IL

Livability — Sesser

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #722
• US rank: #14694

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sesser, IL
• Population (ZIP): 2,764

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,954 people
• By 2030: 36,828 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 34,452 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 31,855 · -16.1%
• By 2075: 25,171 · -33.7%
• By 2100: 18,462 · -51.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.6) · D 24.1% · R 74.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.6 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+45.3 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.86%
• Current HPI: 135.3305
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $32,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $33,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $34,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $35,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $37,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,255 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.