726 Swift Water Dr · Abilene, TX 79602

$309,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,734 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2011 7,754 sqft lot Est $324k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home was a builders model features tall ceilings, hardwood floors, crown molding & granite throughout. Beautiful kitchen boasts range with double ovens, stainless appliances & large pantry. Master suite has 5 piece bath complete with huge shower and double closets. Large guest rooms have plantation shutters and walk-in closets. Smart home with security cameras, intercom & iPod ports throughout. Wylie Schools East school. Fridge, Washer, Dryer and weight set in garage included with full price offer.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• 7,754 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• EXPANSIVE LIVING ROOM
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• LUXURIOUS ENSUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $308k (0.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wylie East El (math 58% / reading 58%, grade C+, #480 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 789 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $307,839 (0.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.38%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $324,258
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
726 Swift Water Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,734 (0%)	0mo	$309,000	$178	100
4734 Bunny Run	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (+0%)	2mo	$325,000	$187	83
4834 Coyote Run	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,790 (+3%)	4mo	$310,000	$173	82
626 Benelli Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,804 (+4%)	1mo	$359,900	$200	79
5026 Bunny Run	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,701 (-2%)	3mo	$319,500	$188	76
609 Marlin Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (+11%)	1mo	$369,900	$192	71
818 Great Waters Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,631 (-6%)	1mo	$307,000	$188	69
817 Swift Water Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-14%)	0mo	$289,000	$193	66
5141 Yellowstone Trl	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-8%)	4mo	$299,900	$187	65
601 Turkey Run	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+12%)	4mo	$344,999	$177	59
517 Beretta	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (+14%)	3mo	$362,500	$184	54
1234 Lewis And Clark Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,573 (-9%)	4mo	$259,900	$165	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-22,766
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $68,774
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,078 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$511 /mo · $6,137/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$646
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,861

Max offer price $309,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 Marlin Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1925	$3,250	$1.69	18d	1	0.08mi
801 Big Water Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,800	$1.82	13d	1	0.23mi
1341 Briar Cliff Path Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1712	$3,100	$1.81	13d	1	0.77mi
3933 Wake Forest Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,495	$1.89	21d	1	0.78mi
3933 Wake Forest Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,495	$1.89	20d	1	0.78mi
1342 Lewis and Clark Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$6,900	$4.39	13d	1	0.81mi
3926 Duke Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,250	$1.40	7d	1	0.82mi
350 Miss Ellie Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,600	$1.84	7d	1	0.94mi
350 Miss Ellie Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,600	$1.84	2d	1	0.94mi
3674 Radcliff Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	1.5	1155	$2,000	$1.73	13d	1	1.14mi
3601 Purdue Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1172	$2,150	$1.83	2d	1	1.19mi
349 Whiterock Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1809	$6,000	$3.32	17d	1	1.23mi
250 Southlake Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$3,400	$1.69	2d	1	1.31mi
7309 Wildflower Way Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$3,195	$2.02	24d	1	1.49mi
1097 Lytle Creek Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,895	$1.99	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-09
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-03-07
   price $309,000
4. 2026-03-07
   listed $305,000 Active
5. 2026-02-13
   soldstatus
6. 2024-11-13
   historical $2,095
7. 2024-10-21
   listed $291,500 Active
8. 2024-10-17
   price $2,095
9. 2024-10-02
   price $2,295
10. 2024-08-13
    listed $2,350
11. 2021-06-11
    soldstatus
12. 2021-06-10
    soldstatus Sold 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    This home was a builders model features tall ceilings, hardwood floors, crown molding & granite throughout. Beautiful kitchen boasts range with double ovens, stainless appliances & large pantry. Master suite has 5 piece bath complete with huge shower and double closets. Large guest rooms have plantation shutters and walk-in closets. Smart home with security cameras, intercom & iPod ports throughout. Wylie Schools East school. Fridge, Washer, Dryer and weight set in garage included with full price offer.

13. 2021-05-14
    status Pending 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    This home was a builders model features tall ceilings, hardwood floors, crown molding & granite throughout. Beautiful kitchen boasts range with double ovens, stainless appliances & large pantry. Master suite has 5 piece bath complete with huge shower and double closets. Large guest rooms have plantation shutters and walk-in closets. Smart home with security cameras, intercom & iPod ports throughout. Wylie Schools East school. Fridge, Washer, Dryer and weight set in garage included with full price offer.

14. 2021-05-06
    historical Active Option Contract 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    This home was a builders model features tall ceilings, hardwood floors, crown molding & granite throughout. Beautiful kitchen boasts range with double ovens, stainless appliances & large pantry. Master suite has 5 piece bath complete with huge shower and double closets. Large guest rooms have plantation shutters and walk-in closets. Smart home with security cameras, intercom & iPod ports throughout. Wylie Schools East school. Fridge, Washer, Dryer and weight set in garage included with full price offer.

15. 2021-05-03
    listed $257,500 Active 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    This home was a builders model features tall ceilings, hardwood floors, crown molding & granite throughout. Beautiful kitchen boasts range with double ovens, stainless appliances & large pantry. Master suite has 5 piece bath complete with huge shower and double closets. Large guest rooms have plantation shutters and walk-in closets. Smart home with security cameras, intercom & iPod ports throughout. Wylie Schools East school. Fridge, Washer, Dryer and weight set in garage included with full price offer.

16. 2019-03-01
    soldstatus
17. 2016-05-27
    soldstatus
18. 2016-05-25
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2016-05-02
    status Pending
20. 2016-04-18
    historical Active Option Contract
21. 2016-04-13
    listed $205,000 Active
22. 2014-06-16
    soldstatus
23. 2013-05-14
    soldstatus
24. 2012-03-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,137 · $511/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,137 · $511/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$6,137
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,955
• − Management: −$2,955
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$2,950
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$708
• After-tax cash flow: $2,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846500
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,248
• Composite: 55.86/100
• National rank: #1206
• State rank: #32 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+50.7% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $309,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $305,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-11-13 Rental Removed $2,095 NTREIS
• 2024-10-21 Listed $291,500 NTREIS
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $2,095 NTREIS
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $2,295 NTREIS
• 2024-08-13 Listed for Rent $2,350 NTREIS
• 2021-06-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-05-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-05-06 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-05-03 Listed $257,500 NTREIS
• 2019-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-25 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-05-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-04-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2016-04-13 Listed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2014-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,137 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.