1342 Sapphire Palms Ct · San Leon, TX 77539

$310,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition 8,572 sqft lot $192/sqft · 23% below area Est $401k · 23% under ↓ 22% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WHY WAIT FOR NEW CONSTRUCTION? Welcome to 1342 Sapphire Palms Ct — a nearly new 4-bedroom 2-bath home built in 2023, offering modern finishes, an open layout, and a larger lot without the builder wait. This single-story home features a bright, open-concept design where the living, dining, and kitchen spaces flow seamlessly together — perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The split-bedroom layout offers privacy, with a spacious primary suite and three additional bedrooms ideal for family, guests, or a home office setup. Situated on an oversized lot, there is plenty of room to relax, entertain, or customize your outdoor space. Enjoy the benefits of newer construction — energy efficiency, low maintenance, and peace of mind — all located just minutes from Galveston Bay, Kemah Boardwalk, and major access routes. Move-in ready — schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Open layout
• Energy efficiency

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• OVERSIZED LOT
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• LOW MAINTENANCE
• MINUTES FROM GALVESTON BAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-611 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (34.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.7% in San Leon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#899 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Leon El (math 27% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 658 students, 84% FRL); R D Mcadams J H (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 65% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 844 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,982 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $401,043
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -22.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1311 Sapphire Palms Ct	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,567 (-3%)	13mo	$330,000	$211	80
2364 Bryan St	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-7%)	14mo	$449,500	$300	69
1547 John St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (-10%)	1mo	$489,999	$340	66
1306 23rd St	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,622 (+1%)	19mo	$399,900	$247	66
1319 Sapphire Palms Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (-15%)	10mo	$293,550	$213	59
2424 Avenue N	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,764 (+9%)	16mo	$449,000	$255	58
1331 Sapphire Palms Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (-15%)	15mo	$330,000	$240	56
1218 Island Dr	0.29mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,434 (-11%)	7mo	$439,900	$307	53
1343 Sapphire Palms Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (-15%)	18mo	$285,000	$207	52
1631 25th St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,504 (-7%)	19mo	$350,500	$233	45
1647 25th St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-13%)	16mo	$350,000	$249	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-96,872
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -82.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.89×
• Total profit: $-164,149
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 32.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $384,000 ($225/sqft)
• Median days on market: 190 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 844
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,779 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$626 /mo · $7,508/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $-611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,553

Max offer price $201,982

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-436	-5% $-524	+0% $-611	+5% $-699	+10% $-787
Rent	-10% $-831	-5% $-721	+0% $-611	+5% $-502	+10% $-392
Rate	-1.0pp $-455	-0.5pp $-533	base $-611	+0.5pp $-692	+1.0pp $-774

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2735 Broadway St Unit 1546437P San Leon, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$4,994	$2.75	61d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-07-07
   days on market $310,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-07-06
   days on market $310,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-07-06
   days on market $310,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-07-05
   days on market $310,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-07-03
   days on market $310,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-07-02
   days on market $310,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-07-01
   days on market $310,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-30
   days on market $310,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-29
   days on market $310,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-28
    days on market $310,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-27
    days on market $310,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-26
    days on market $310,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-24
    days on market $310,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-22
    days on market $310,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-06-21
    days on market $310,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-06-18
    days on market $310,000 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-06-17
    days on market $310,000 Active 77 DOM
18. 2026-06-16
    days on market $310,000 Active 76 DOM
19. 2026-06-15
    days on market $310,000 Active 75 DOM
20. 2026-06-13
    days on market $310,000 Active 73 DOM
21. 2026-06-09
    days on market $310,000 Active 69 DOM
22. 2026-06-08
    days on market $310,000 Active 68 DOM
23. 2026-06-07
    days on market $310,000 Active 67 DOM
24. 2026-06-04
    days on market $310,000 Active 64 DOM
25. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 63 DOM
26. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 62 DOM
27. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 61 DOM
28. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 60 DOM
29. 2026-03-30
    listed $310,000 Active 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    WHY WAIT FOR NEW CONSTRUCTION? Welcome to 1342 Sapphire Palms Ct — a nearly new 4-bedroom 2-bath home built in 2023, offering modern finishes, an open layout, and a larger lot without the builder wait. This single-story home features a bright, open-concept design where the living, dining, and kitchen spaces flow seamlessly together — perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The split-bedroom layout offers privacy, with a spacious primary suite and three additional bedrooms ideal for family, guests, or a home office setup. Situated on an oversized lot, there is plenty of room to relax, entertain, or customize your outdoor space. Enjoy the benefits of newer construction — energy efficiency, low maintenance, and peace of mind — all located just minutes from Galveston Bay, Kemah Boardwalk, and major access routes. Move-in ready — schedule your showing today.

30. 2024-08-23
    historical
31. 2024-04-27
    listed $300,000 Active
32. 2024-04-09
    historical
33. 2024-03-29
    listed $399,000 Active
34. 2024-03-15
    price $399,000
35. 2024-03-15
    historical
36. 2024-02-16
    listed $299,000 Active
37. 2024-02-16
    historical
38. 2023-08-18
    listed $395,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,508 · $626/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,508 · $626/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$7,508
• − Insurance: −$6,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,668
• − Management: −$2,668
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$12,545
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,011
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This nearly new single-story home offers modern finishes, an open layout, and a spacious lot, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both furniture — improves the home's livability and appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary San Leon El F TX #3,013/4,322 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle John And Shamarion Barber Middle C+ TX #275/1,662 Nat'l #2,785/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — San Leon

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #899
• US rank: #16159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Leon, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

---

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-27 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-29 Listed $399,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-15 Price Changed $399,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-16 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-18 Listed $395,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+168.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,508 · +58.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.