1342 Sapphire Palms Ct · San Leon, TX 77539

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition 7,143 sqft lot $180/sqft · 27% below area Est $392k · 26% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WHY WAIT FOR NEW CONSTRUCTION? Welcome to 1342 Sapphire Palms Ct — a nearly new 4-bedroom 2-bath home built in 2023, offering modern finishes, an open layout, and a larger lot without the builder wait. This single-story home features a bright, open-concept design where the living, dining, and kitchen spaces flow seamlessly together — perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The split-bedroom layout offers privacy, with a spacious primary suite and three additional bedrooms ideal for family, guests, or a home office setup. Situated on an oversized lot, there is plenty of room to relax, entertain, or customize your outdoor space.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Quartz kitchen tops
• Tiled floors

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• UPGRADED REAR PORCH
• HURRICANE IMPACT RATED WINDOWS
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• TILED FLOORS
• QUARTZ KITCHEN TOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-734 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (44.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (44.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 1.8% in San Leon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#899 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Leon El (math 27% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 658 students, 84% FRL); John And Shamarion Barber Middle (math 59% / reading 48%, grade C+, #275 of 1,662 statewide, top 17%, 568 students, 74% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,150 (44.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.55%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,901
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -26.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1227 23rd St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-7%)	0mo	$465,000	$310	78
1311 Sapphire Palms Ct	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,567 (-3%)	16mo	$330,000	$211	76
2364 Bryan St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-7%)	17mo	$449,500	$300	69
1547 John St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,443 (-10%)	4mo	$489,999	$340	66
1319 Sapphire Palms Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-15%)	13mo	$293,550	$213	64
1331 Sapphire Palms Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-15%)	18mo	$330,000	$240	59
1026 20th St	0.66mi	3/3.0	1,550 (-4%)	0mo	$335,000	$216	58
1218 Island Dr	0.25mi	3/3.0	1,434 (-11%)	10mo	$439,900	$307	58
1343 Sapphire Palms Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-15%)	21mo	$285,000	$207	58
2424 Avenue N	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+9%)	19mo	$449,000	$255	50
917 21st Street St	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-3%)	8mo	$200,000	$128	49
1647 25th St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-13%)	19mo	$350,000	$249	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-100,171
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -97.5%
• Equity multiple: -1.12×
• Total profit: $-172,181
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 34.5 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $340,000 ($228/sqft)
• Median days on market: 178 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1067
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,319 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$499 /mo · $5,987/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-734

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,249

Max offer price $160,150

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-570	-5% $-652	+0% $-734	+5% $-817	+10% $-899
Rent	-10% $-918	-5% $-826	+0% $-734	+5% $-643	+10% $-551
Rate	-1.0pp $-588	-0.5pp $-661	base $-734	+0.5pp $-810	+1.0pp $-886

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Tennyson St San Leon, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,250	$0.78	0d	1	1.31mi
2735 Broadway St Unit 1546437P San Leon, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$4,994	$2.75	153d	1	1.40mi
535 12th St Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,950	$1.56	138d	1	1.44mi
535 12th St San Leon, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,750	$1.40	10d	1	1.44mi
527 12th St San Leon, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,750	$1.40	10d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking available
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2023
• Construction: Cement sidingComposition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: First-floor bedrooms (three): 11x10, 12x11, primary 13x12
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $289,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $289,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $289,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $289,900 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $289,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $289,900 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   pricedays on market $289,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $299,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $299,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $299,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $299,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $299,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $299,900 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $299,900 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $299,900 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $299,900 Active 27 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $299,900 Active 26 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $299,900 Active 25 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $299,900 Active 24 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $299,900 Active 23 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $299,900 Active 22 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $299,900 Active 21 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $299,900 Active 20 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $299,900 Active 19 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $299,900 Active 18 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $299,900 Active 17 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $299,900 Active 16 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $299,900 Active 15 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $299,900 Active 14 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 13 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 12 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $299,900 Active 11 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $299,900 Active 10 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 9 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 8 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 7 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 6 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 5 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $299,900 Active 3 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $299,900 Active 2 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    pricedays on marketlisting id $299,900 Active 1 DOM
44. 2026-07-07
    days on market $310,000 Active 97 DOM
45. 2026-07-06
    days on market $310,000 Active 96 DOM
46. 2026-07-06
    days on market $310,000 Active 95 DOM
47. 2026-07-05
    days on market $310,000 Active 94 DOM
48. 2026-07-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 93 DOM
49. 2026-07-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 92 DOM
50. 2026-07-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 91 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,987 · $499/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,987 · $499/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$5,987
• − Insurance: −$6,568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,226
• − Management: −$2,226
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$13,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,324
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This nearly new single-story home offers modern finishes, an open layout, and a spacious lot, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both furniture — improves the home's livability and appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary San Leon El F TX #3,013/4,322 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle John And Shamarion Barber Middle C+ TX #275/1,662 Nat'l #2,785/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — San Leon

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #899
• US rank: #16159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Leon, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking available
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2023
• Construction: Cement sidingComposition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: First-floor bedrooms (three): 11x10, 12x11, primary 13x12
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

Price history

-24.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-09-25 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-07-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-27 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-29 Listed $399,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-15 Price Changed $399,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-16 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-18 Listed $395,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+79.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,987 · -20.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.